Enhancing the Viability of NDCs in East Africa: Assessing Progress, Gaps and path to net zero

Author: Nader Khalifa, Researcher, Governance and Economic Policy Centre*, December 2025

Introduction: COP30 as the Implementation Milestone

The COP30 in Belém – Brazil marked a critical milestone, being framed as the “Implementation COP,” arriving a decade after the signing of the Paris Agreement and returning to Brazil over 30 years since the landmark 1992 Earth Summit. The COP concluded with some proclamations on Just Transition Mechanism and adoption of Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA) indicators, and increased focus on nature and finance but little radical actions to tame the climate crisis under 1.5°C target.

Despite the milestones, global implementation remains off-track, with countries collectively failing to reduce emissions and scale resilience at the pace required. The climate crisis is still treated with suspicion, geopolitical jostling and underfunded, highlighting a clear gap between ambition and action. Only small share around 12–15% of European climate finance is accessible to the poorest and most climate-vulnerable African countries, far below their share of climate risk and need (OECD, 2023). In East Arica, analysis of climate adaptation finance shows that approximately 52.7 % of funds committed for adaptation were actually disbursed between 2009 and 2018 (Savvidou et al., 2021).

This paper assesses the state of global progress on Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), with a particular focus on East African countries—Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, and Rwanda. It further compares the level of NDC implementation and financial support needs in these countries against the climate finance commitments and disbursements of selected European nations, evaluating whether NDCs remain viable tools for achieving the Paris Agreement objectives, identifying gaps, and proposes strategic recommendations to strengthen their viability in achieving Paris Agreement goals.

Global NDC Assessment: Are We on Track for Paris Targets?

According to the UNFCCC’s latest NDC Synthesis Report (2023–2024), global emissions remain far above Paris-aligned trajectories. Current NDCs collectively put the world on a 2.4–2.6°C warming path far from the 1.5°C target (UNEP, 2023).

NDC Implementation Gap: Structural Barriers and Evidence of Underperformance

Although East African countries have strengthened their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) since 2015—many increasing mitigations ambition by over 20–30% and expanding adaptation priorities—the region continues to face a widening implementation gap as real-world emission reductions have not followed at the required scale. This gap reflects both systemic constraints and insufficient translation of political commitments into measurable action and raises serious questions about whether NDCs, as currently designed, can deliver the Paris outcomes.

Key Implementation Gaps and Challenges

High dependence on external climate finance

  • Most East African NDCs rely on 70–90% external financing, particularly for adaptation and energy transition.
  • The region collectively requires more than USD 280–300 billion by 2030, yet receives less than 12%–15% of that annually (AfDB, 2023).
  • Adaptation finance alone is underfunded by over USD 2.5 billion per year across the region (GCA, 2023).

Limited progress in translating NDC commitments into sectoral action

  • Updated NDCs include ambitious mitigation targets—such as Kenya’s 32% by 2030, Uganda’s 22%, and Ethiopia’s conditional 68%—yet emissions continue to rise in transport, agriculture, and industry.
  • Only 20–30% of planned mitigation actions are currently being implemented at scale.

Weak MRV systems and institutional capacity

  • More than 70% of East African countries lack fully operational MRV systems across energy, agriculture, and waste sectors.
  • Inadequate data collection and reporting reduce accountability and hinder access to climate finance, which increasingly requires robust tracking frameworks (ICAT, 2022).

Limited domestic integration and mainstreaming

  • NDCs remain insufficiently embedded in national and subnational development plans.
  • Fewer than 40% of sector ministries align annual budgets with NDC priorities, creating fragmentation and slow execution.
  • Local governments—key for adaptation delivery—receive less than 10% of the required climate financing.

Slow and complex climate finance disbursement

  • Global climate funds (e.g., GCF, GEF) take 18–24 months on average from concept to approval.
  • East Africa adaptation finance disbursement ratio (≈52.7 %), considerably below what’s needed and indicating a persistent delivery gap.
  • Private-sector investment remains below USD 4 billion per year, far short of the USD 24–30 billion needed annually.

Limited community participation in planning and delivery

  • NDC implementation often excludes rural and climate-vulnerable communities, despite these groups experiencing more than 70% of climate impacts (floods, droughts, crop failures).
  • This reduces local ownership and increases the risk of maladaptation.

East African NDCs: Ambition, Progress, and Implementation Realities

The second generation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in East Africa demonstrates a clear increase in ambition compared to 2015 submissions. However, implementation continues to lag far behind targets due to systemic financing, institutional, and capacity constraints. This section synthesizes the ambition levels, progress indicators, and the underlying structural barriers limiting effective delivery of NDC commitments in Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and Rwanda.

Ambition Levels and Emission Reduction Targets

All four East African countries have strengthened their 2030 climate commitments, reflecting enhanced sectoral coverage (Kenya: Energy, agriculture, LULUCF, transport, waste, Tanzania: Energy, transport, forestry, waste, Uganda: Energy, forestry, agriculture, Rwanda: Energy, industry, waste, agriculture) and improved quantification of mitigation and adaptation actions.

These targets indicate rising ambition; however, nearly 80–90% of planned mitigation outcomes remain dependent on external finance, highlighting an imbalance between national ambition and the available resource base.

  • Implementation Status: Progress and Performance

Despite strong stated ambition, real implementation remains uneven and significantly below required trajectories. Key observations include:

Positive Developments

  • Kenya continues to lead the region in renewable energy deployment, with geothermal providing over 40% of total power generation, complemented by utility-scale wind and solar.
  • Rwanda operates one of the most advanced MRV systems in Africa, integrating national inventories, sectoral reporting templates, and verification frameworks.
  • Tanzania and Uganda have made notable progress in adaptation planning, particularly in agriculture, water, and disaster risk management.

However, progress falls short of NDC trajectories due to:

  • Delayed and unpredictable international climate finance disbursement, especially for adaptation.
  • Limited mainstreaming of NDCs, with weak integration into national development plans, sectoral strategies, and district-level programs.
  • Technical gaps in MRV, GHG accounting, emissions modeling, and data management.
  • Insufficient private sector participation due to regulatory uncertainty, weak incentives, and few bankable climate projects.

Overall, implementation progress remains slow, fragmented, and insufficient to place the region on a Paris-aligned trajectory.

Climate Finance Needs, Delivery, and the Widening Gap

East African NDCs require substantial financing for both mitigation and adaptation. Country estimates highlight an urgent mismatch between required and delivered resources:

Evidence of the Finance Gap

  • East Africa receives less than 12% of Africa’s total climate finance inflows (CPI, 2024).
  • Adaptation finance remains below 30% of total flows to the region, despite East Africa being among the world’s most climate-vulnerable regions (Brookings Institution, 2022).
  • GCF projects in East Africa face approval timelines averaging 24–36 months, slowing implementation of urgent projects.
  • National institutions struggle to meet stringent fiduciary and documentation requirements of major climate funds.

Institutional, Governance, and Capacity Constraints

Several deep-rooted challenges hinder NDC implementation:

Institutional Challenges

  • Weak MRV systems in several countries limit tracking, reporting, and verification of progress.
  • Fragmented inter-ministerial coordination, especially between energy, finance, agriculture, and environment ministries.
  • Data deficits in key sectors (LULUCF, agriculture, off-grid energy, transport), affecting GHG inventory accuracy.

Governance and Operational Gaps

  • Limited local government engagement, despite significant adaptation actions being subnational.
  • Low public participation, particularly in rural and climate-vulnerable communities.
  • Few mature, bankable projects, leading to under-utilization of available finance windows.
  • Private sector climate investment remains below 15% of total climate finance in East Africa.

Collectively, these challenges reinforce the structural implementation gap, limiting the region’s ability to translate Paris ambition into real, measurable outcomes.

International Climate Finance Support: European Commitments vs. Delivery

    • Pledges vs. Delivered Finance

European countries — led by Germany, France, the EU, and the UK — collectively pledge significant climate finance to Africa. However, the delivery gap remains substantial:

  • OECD data show that while European donors reported USD 34–36 billion in climate finance annually (2019–2022), the actual disbursements to African LDCs were less than USD 9–11 billion.
  • Only around 12–15% of European climate finance is accessible to the poorest and most climate-vulnerable African countries.
  • Adaptation finance remains critically low: in 2022, EU institutions allocated only 27% of their climate finance to adaptation—far below the 50% target encouraged by COP26 and COP27 decisions.
  • The UNFCCC Standing Committee on Finance confirms a USD 1.2–1.3 trillion cumulative finance gaps for African NDCs by 2030.
  • According to a report by FSD Africa, the average disbursement ratio for climate finance in Africa is 79%, which includes both mitigation and adaptation flows CPI (2022).
  • According to Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) data, adaptation finance for African countries was disbursed at an average rate of 46%, compared to 56% for mitigation finance.
  • The Landscape of Climate Finance in Africa (2024) report from the Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) estimates that adaptation finance flows to Africa rose from USD 11.8 billion in 2019/20 to USD 13.8 billion in 2021/22.

Misalignment with African Priorities

European finance is still mitigation-heavy, although Africa’s most urgent needs relate to adaptation:

  • More than 65–70% of EU climate finance to Africa goes to mitigation sectors (renewables, energy efficiency).
  • Adaptation sectors such as agriculture, water management, early warning systems, and climate-resilient infrastructure receive less than 30%.
  • UNEP’s Adaptation Gap Report indicates that adaptation finance globally is also constrained, Analyses show that a large majority of adaptation actions identified in African NDCs remain unfunded or underfunded, with only around 20–23% of adaptation needs being met by climate finance flows, leaving substantial gaps for implementation. (UNEP Adaptation Gap Report 2023).
  • The African Development Bank estimates that Africa needs USD 52–57 billion/year in adaptation finance but currently receives less than USD 11.4 billion/year.
    • Systemic Barriers Limiting Access to European & Multilateral Funds

African LDCs face structural constraints that prevent them from accessing European climate finance effectively:

  • Approval cycles for GCF and GEF projects routinely takes time, delaying implementation.
  • High fiduciary standards, financial reporting requirements, and bankability tests result in rejection or delays for NDC-aligned proposals.
  • Only 14 African national institutions are currently accredited to the GCF, limiting direct access.
  • Less than 5% of readiness funding reaches local MRV institutions, leading to persistent data gaps.
  • Technical assistance for NDC implementation—planning, monitoring, tracking, and verification—remains insufficient for most countries.

This combination makes African NDCs remain “ambitious on paper, underfunded in practice.”

Why NDCs Still Matter

Despite finance and implementation challenges, NDCs remain central to Africa’s climate and development future because they:

  • Define and update national climate ambition every five years;
  • Guide investment pathways in mitigation and adaptation;
  • Anchor national development plans to climate-resilient trajectories;
  • Serve as the main framework for accessing climate finance;
  • Provide structure for reporting under the Enhanced Transparency Framework.

Strengthening NDC design, financing, MRV, and implementation support is fundamental post-COP30, where countries are expected to raise ambition and demonstrate credible progress.

Policy Recommendations

To close the growing implementation gap and ensure that East African NDCs deliver measurable climate outcomes, the following evidence-based policy actions are proposed. These recommendations strengthen institutional capacity, enhance climate finance access, accelerate sectoral mainstreaming, and improve accountability post-COP30.

  • Strengthen Institutional and Technical Capacity
  • Establish Dedicated NDC Implementation Units

Create permanent, inter-ministerial NDC coordination units mandated to align sectoral policies, oversee progress, and engage with development partners.

  • Upgrade MRV Systems and Technical Competencies

Invest in end-to-end MRV systems—GHG inventories, mitigation tracking, adaptation metrics, and digital monitoring tools—while providing continuous training for sector ministries.

  • Develop National Climate Data Repositories

Build centralized climate data platforms for agriculture, energy, transport, and land use to enhance evidence-based policymaking and transparency.

  • Enhance Climate Finance Mobilization and Access
  • Formulate National Climate Finance Strategies:

Align domestic priorities with the eligibility criteria of the GCF, GEF, Adaptation Fund, and bilateral donors to improve approval rates and reduce project rejection.

  • Increase Readiness and Project Preparation Funding

Expand participation in GCF Readiness, NDC Partnership support, and GEF capacity-building programs to address limited pipeline of bankable projects.

  • Promote Blended Finance and Private Sector Mobilization

Introduce policy incentives for green bonds, guarantees, concessional loans, and PPPs to unlock long-term mitigation and adaptation investments.

  • Advocate for Simplified Access Windows for LDCs

The future COPs must negotiate streamlined procedures, reduced documentation requirements, and faster approval timelines for LDC and fragile countries.

  • Mainstream NDCs into National and Local Development Planning
  • Integrate NDC Targets into National Budgets and Sector Plans

Embed climate actions in annual budget cycles, Medium-Term Expenditure Frameworks, and district/county development plans.

  • Establish Performance Indicators for Line Ministries

Link ministerial scorecards and KPIs with measurable NDC outcomes to strengthen accountability and accelerate implementation.

  • Embed Adaptation into Core Sectors

Ensure NDC-aligned adaptation actions are systematically integrated into agriculture, water, health, infrastructure, and urban planning frameworks.

  • Scale Up Community and Citizen Participation
  • Adopt Community-Based Adaptation (CBA) Frameworks

Expand participatory adaptation programs in rural and climate-vulnerable regions, supported by local extension systems.

  • Link Rural Development Programs to NDC Outcomes

Prioritize climate-smart agriculture, reforestation, watershed management, and off-grid energy in rural development interventions.

  • Strengthen Gender and Youth Inclusion

Mandate gender-responsive planning and youth representation in NDC committees, local climate governance, and project implementation.

  • Enhance Regional Cooperation and Knowledge Exchange
  • Establish a Regional MRV and Knowledge Platform

Under the East African Community (EAC), create a shared platform for data exchange, methodologies, and best practices on GHG inventories and sectoral MRV.

  • Promote Cross-Border Renewable Energy Corridors

Accelerate regional geothermal, hydro, and solar initiatives, along with power-pool integration and transmission infrastructure.

  • Strengthen Transboundary Ecosystem Management

Improve joint management of critical basins—Lake Victoria, the Nile, and rangeland ecosystems—to enhance resilience and disaster risk reduction.

  • Improve Transparency, Governance, and Accountability
  • Publish Annual NDC Implementation Reports

Introduce open-access dashboards that track emissions, adaptation progress, climate finance flows, and project delivery.

  • Create Independent Oversight Mechanisms

Establish multi-stakeholder oversight bodies involving civil society, academia, and the private sector to review progress and recommend corrective actions.

  • Mandate Public Disclosure of Climate Finance

Require transparent reporting of all international and domestic climate finance flows, including donor commitments, disbursements, and utilization.

About the Author: Nader Khalifa is an engineer and energy professional with over 15 years of expertise in the energy and petroleum sectors. He currently serves with the Ministry of Energy & Petroleum of Sudan, in addition to his role as a Sudan Team Member for the Initiative on Climate Action Transparency (ICAT) project, a collaborative effort involving UNEP, CCC, and HCENR, and a distinguished researcher and a Colosseum Member at the Governance & Economic Policy Centre (GEPC).

References

  1. African Development Bank (AfDB) (2023). Climate finance in Africa: Overview and outlook. Abidjan: African Development Bank Group.
  2. Brookings Institution (2022). Finance for climate adaptation in Africa: Still insufficient and losing ground. Brookings Global Economy and Development Program. Available at: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/finance-for-climate-adaptation-in-africa-still-insufficient-and-losing-ground/.
  3. Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) (2024). Landscape of climate finance in Africa. London: Climate Policy Initiative. Available at: https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/landscape-of-climate-finance-in-africa-2024/.
  4. FSD Africa & Climate Policy Initiative (CPI) (2022). Landscape of climate finance in Africa. Nairobi: FSD Africa. Available at: https://fsdafrica.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/1.-Landscape-of-Climate-Finance-in-Africa-l-Full-report.pdf 
  5. Global Center on Adaptation (GCA) (2023). Africa’s adaptation gap: Climate finance needs and priorities. Rotterdam: Global Center on Adaptation. Available at: https://gca.org/reports/state-and-trends-in-adaptation/.
  6. Government of Kenya (2020). Updated Nationally Determined Contribution. Nairobi: Ministry of Environment and Forestry.
  7. Government of Rwanda (2020). Updated NDC Submission. Kigali: Ministry of Environment.
  8. Government of Tanzania (2021). Updated Nationally Determined Contribution. Dodoma: Vice President’s Office.
  9. Government of Uganda (2022). Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Kampala: Ministry of Water and Environment.
  10. ICAT (2022). Guidance for Transparency Frameworks in LDCs. Copenhagen: Initiative on Climate Action Transparency.
  11. IPCC (2022). AR6 Working Group III: Mitigation of climate change. Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/.
  1. Nature (2025). Reframing climate finance for Africa. Available at: https://www.nature.com/articles/d44148-025-00353-5
  1. OECD (2023). Climate finance provided and mobilised by developed countries in 2013–2021. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Available at: https://www.oecd.org/environment/climate-finance-provided-and-mobilised-by-developed-countries.htm.
  2. Savvidou, G., Atteridge, A., Omari-Motsumi, K. and Trisos, C. (2021). Quantifying international public finance for climate change adaptation in Africa. Stockholm: Stockholm Environment Institute. Available at: https://www.sei.org/publications/climate-finance-adaptation-africa/.
  1. Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) (2024). How effective is climate finance in assisting farmers in low- and middle-income countries adapt to climate change? Available at: https://www.sei.org/features/how-effective-is-climate-finance-in-assisting-farmers-in-low-and-middle-income-countries-adapt-to-climate-change/
  2. UNEP (2023). Adaptation Gap Report 2023: Underfinanced, underprepared. Nairobi: United Nations Environment Programme. Available at: https://www.unep.org/resources/adaptation-gap-report-2023
  3. UNFCCC (2023). Nationally Determined Contributions synthesis report. Bonn: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Available at: https://unfccc.int/ndc-synthesis-report-2023

 

 

Sustainable Energy Policy, Regulation and Green Economy finance course 2026-Applications open

Gain skills, Accelerate the Energy Transition in Africa!
Join the Sustainable Energy Policy, Regulation and Green Economy Financing Course to gain the knowledge, tools, and skills to shape policies, drive regulatory reforms, and unlock financing for clean, reliable, and equitable energy. Designed for policymakers, civil society leaders, private sector actors, and finance professionals, this course equips you to tackle climate change, expand energy access, and lead a just and inclusive green economy. Take action today and be part of the transformation powering Africa’s sustainable future.

The GEPC sustainable Energy Policy, Regulation and Green Economy Financing Course Equips policy makers, civil society leaders, private sector stakeholders, and financial professional’s with the knowledge and practical skills to drive Africa’s reduction of energy poverty, transition to clean, reliable , and equitable energy system.  Against the backdrop of climate change and persistent energy access challenges, the course addresses critical gaps in policy formulation, regulatory frameworks, advocacy and financing mechanisms.

Participants will gain tools to design and implement sustainable energy policies, promote inclusive governance, mobilise investments for green projects and support a just and resilient energy transition that fosters economic growth, social equity and environmental sustainability.

Course Background and Context

Climate change presents an urgent global challenge, with the most severe impacts disproportionately affecting less developed countries in East Africa and Africa generally. Despite international commitments under the Paris Agreement and subsequent UN Climate Conferences (CoP27 and CoP28), developing countries face significant barriers in accessing technology, finance, and expertise to transition to clean energy. Global climate governance often leaves low-income countries under-resourced and underrepresented, creating complex challenges for equitable and just energy transitions.

In Eastern Africa and Africa generally, policy frameworks and regulatory mechanisms for sustainable energy remain underdeveloped, poorly communicated, and inadequately enforced. This has created critical gaps in governance, technical capacity, and financing, limiting the country’s ability to expand clean energy access, reduce emissions, and achieve its climate commitments. Strengthening national capacity, promoting citizen engagement, and enhancing advocacy for policy reform are therefore essential to support a just and inclusive energy transition.

Sustainable energy is central to meeting these challenges. Defined as clean, reliable, affordable, and equitable, sustainable energy supports national development needs while minimizing environmental harm and fostering long-term economic, social, and environmental sustainability. Integrated sustainable energy systems combine renewable sources—such as solar, wind, hydro, geothermal, and biomass—with modern technologies, smart grids, and storage solutions to deliver energy efficiently, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and expand access to underserved communities.

Continentally, Africa continues to face significant energy access deficits, with approximately 600 million people lacking reliable electricity and 970 million without access to clean cooking solutions. Only about 25% of electricity in the region comes from renewable sources, despite Africa possessing around 60% of the world’s best solar potential. These gaps highlight the urgent need for effective policy, regulation, and financing strategies to mobilize investment, accelerate energy transition, and achieve energy equity.

Efforts and Challenges in Sustainable Energy Access and Financing

Efforts to expand access to sustainable energy, including initiatives like the World Bank Mission 300, have made progress but remain limited. Clean cooking solutions are still expensive and often inaccessible for the poorest and remote households. Expanding energy access and achieving a just transition requires policy reforms such as unbundling existing energy utilities and integrating sustainable energy systems into national, mini, and off-grid networks. Well-designed integrated systems can support public services—solar-powered water, health facilities, small businesses, electrified transport, housing, and modernized agriculture—while reducing reliance on fossil fuels.

Investment in clean energy has grown modestly over the past two years, including multilateral and private sector contributions, yet financing remains far below what is needed. Critical questions persist: how can governments and private sector actors scale investments in sustainable energy systems, and which models are best for advancing clean energy and other renewable technologies in Africa?

Globally, the energy sector is rapidly shifting toward renewables, with record growth in 2023 reaching 3,870 GW of installed capacity (IRENA, 2024). Countries are adopting Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to guide climate adaptation and mitigation at the national level, supported by financing mechanisms like carbon trading, multilateral funds, and private sector investments.

However, in Eastern Africa and Africa generally, limited knowledge and expertise hinder the ability of governments, civil society, and private actors to navigate evolving global energy policies and regulatory frameworks. Accessing climate finance and developing bankable green economy projects remains challenging. Consequently, strengthening skills, policy understanding, regulatory capacity, and financing literacy is critical to accelerate the transition to sustainable clean energy and scale up investment in the green economy, providing jobs and sustainable development.

This course is designed to equip public policymakers, civil society actors, private sector stakeholders, and financial institutions with the knowledge, skills, and tools to shape and implement sustainable energy policies, advance regulatory reforms, and unlock financing for a just and equitable green economy.

Skills Gap Analysis and Justification

The transition to sustainable and clean energy in Eastern Africa and across the Africa region is constrained by a critical shortage of technical knowledge, policy expertise, and institutional capacity. Various engagements between the Governance and Economic Policy Centre (GEPC), civil society organizations, and government institutions have consistently highlighted the need for targeted capacity building to accelerate policy, regulatory, and financing reforms that support the energy transition.

Identified Skills Gaps

In 2022, the Governance and Economic Policy Centre in collaboration with one of its international partners, attempted to form a National Multisector Reference Group on Energy Transition in Tanzania as a bespoke platform for policy dialogue, advocacy, and capacity development.  The feedback and lessons drawn from this process demonstrated an urgent need for renewed capacity-building and leadership in this area. A subsequent short skills gap study commissioned by GEPC in 2024 identified several critical weaknesses among key stakeholder groups:

  • Government officials and legislators lack the technical expertise to design, implement, and monitor effective sustainable energy policies and laws.
  • Civil society organizations have limited knowledge of the global political economy of climate change and energy, limited advocacy, analytical, and policy engagement skills to effectively influence decision-making and accountability mechanisms.
  • Private sector actors struggle to identify, develop, and present bankable renewable energy projects.
  • Financial institutions face challenges in evaluating, matching, and financing sustainable energy investments.
  • Overall political will and coordination for driving sustainable energy transition remain weak and fragmented.

Rationale for the Course

In response to these systemic capacity gaps, GEPC has designed the Sustainable Energy Policy, Regulation and Green Economy Financing Course to strengthen the technical and institutional foundations for an inclusive and just energy transition. The course directly addresses the need for:

  • Enhanced policy and regulatory understanding among public officials and other key stakeholders.
  • Improved advocacy and engagement capacity for civil society and community actors.
  • Strengthened financial literacy and investment readiness within the private and banking sectors.
  • Greater collaboration and coherence among energy sector stakeholders.

This course addresses these gaps by equipping policymakers, civil society actors, private sector professionals, and financial institutions with the knowledge, skills, and tools to shape sustainable energy policies, advance regulatory frameworks, and mobilize financing for a just and inclusive green economy.

Course Approach

The program will be delivered as an extended seven-week modular course.  It will be facilitated by a diverse faculty of experts drawn from GEPC technical ecosystem, global partners and experts, combining practical experience, policy insights, and technical expertise.

Through a blend of lectures, case studies, simulations, and interactive sessions, the course will equip participants with the knowledge and tools necessary to shape effective policies, foster accountability, and mobilize financing for sustainable and equitable energy development.

Course Objectives

The course aims to:

  1. Enhance understanding of sustainable energy policy, regulatory frameworks, and governance mechanisms relevant to Tanzania and the region.
  2. Develop technical and analytical capacity among policymakers, civil society, and financial sector actors to support the design and implementation of effective energy transition strategies.
  3. Strengthen advocacy and policy engagement skills for civil society to influence public policy and regulatory reform processes.
  4. Improve knowledge of financing mechanisms and models for mobilizing investment in renewable and green economy projects.
  5. Foster collaboration and policy coherence among government, civil society, private sector, and financial institutions in advancing a just and inclusive energy transition.
  6. Promote innovation and leadership in sustainable energy planning, implementation, and financing.

Expected Outcomes

Upon completion of the course, participants will be able to:

  • Demonstrate a clear understanding of the policy, legal, and regulatory dimensions of sustainable energy and green financing.
  • Apply analytical and strategic tools to develop and implement effective energy transition policies and projects.
  • Understand the global political economy of sustainable energy, engage more effectively in policy dialogue, advocacy, and accountability processes related to the energy sector.
  • Identify, design, and evaluate bankable clean energy projects suitable for public and private investment.
  • Strengthen institutional coordination and stakeholder collaboration for integrated and sustainable energy governance.
  • Contribute to building national and regional momentum for a just, inclusive, and climate-resilient energy future.

Course Content and Modules Overview

The Sustainable Energy Policy, Regulation and Green Economy Financing Course is designed to provide participants with both conceptual understanding and practical tools for influencing, designing, and implementing sustainable energy solutions. The course content is structured into seven interlinked modules, each addressing a critical dimension of sustainable energy and the energy transition.

Weekly Modules

Objectives, expected competence

Module 1: Understanding Sustainable Energy and the Global Energy Transition

Objective: To provide a foundational understanding of sustainable energy systems, their global dynamics, and relevance to Eastern Africa and Africa’s development agenda.

Key Topics:

  • Concepts and principles of sustainable energy and just transitions
  • Global energy transition: drivers, trends, challenges
  • Overview of emerging trends in renewables and energy efficiency technologies
  • Global and regional energy transition frameworks (UNFCCC, Paris Agreement, SDGs, NDCs and Agenda 2063)
  • Energy access, poverty, and development linkages
  • Eastern Africa and Africa’s energy context and policy landscape

Expected Competence: Participants will gain an informed understanding of the global and national energy transition landscape and how it aligns with sustainable development goals.

Module 2: Policy, Legal and Regulatory Frameworks for Sustainable Energy

 

Objective: To build participants’ knowledge of the policy and legal frameworks governing sustainable energy.

Key Topics will cover:

  • Global energy policy debates in the context of energy access and transition
  • National and regional policy and legal frameworks in the context of global energy
  • Energy Policy formulation processes and regulatory designs
  • Energy Policy tools: subsidies, tariffs, carbon pricing, auctions
  • Regional integration and power pools (e.g., EAPP, WAPP, SAPP)
  • Institutional coordination and governance mechanisms
  • Role of legislature and local governments in sustainable energy governance
  • Gender, equity, and social inclusion in energy policy

Expected Competence: Participants will be equipped to analyze, interpret, and contribute to policy and regulatory reform in the energy sector.

Module 3: Financing the Green Economy and Renewable Energy Investments, project development & bankability

 

Objective: To enhance understanding of green financing mechanisms, instruments, practical competencies, and strategies for developing financeable projects, mobilizing, manage and analyze green financing.

Key Topics:

  • Global Climate Change and green economy financing terrain
  • Geopolitics of climate financing and energy diplomacy
  • Principles of green economy and sustainable finance
  • Financing models for renewable energy (public, private, PPPs, and blended finance), Green bonds, blue bonds, climate funds, carbon markets, carbon swaps and JTEPs

·        Project feasibility studies, project modeling, preparation, operations and risk management

  • Mobilizing domestic and international finance for energy projects
  • Role of National Capital & Money markets, Green Banks, DFIs and MDBs (World Bank, AfDB, TDB)
  • Clean Energy Financing Contracts

Expected Competence: Participants will understand the clean energy financing terrain, acquire practical skills and tools to analyze clean energy financing texts, developing, and evaluating bankable renewable energy projects and access appropriate financing channels 

Module 4: Governance, Equity & Environmental Safeguards

 

Objective: To understand the governance, equity & environmental safeguard concerns underlying the transition to sustainable energy.

Key Topics:

    • Social and environmental concerns and safeguards
    • Responsible Business Conduct in Energy sector
    • Just Transition: equity, gender, community inclusion
    • Governance and anti-corruption in energy financing

Expected Competence: Participants will gain insights into the advocacy concerns and suitable policy and regulatory responses to just energy transitions and financing of sustainable energy. 

Module 5: Communication, Advocacy, Accountability and Stakeholder Engagement

 

Objective: To strengthen participants’ advocacy, negotiation, and communication skills for influencing policy and ensuring accountability in energy governance.

Key Topics:

  • Communication for sustainable energy
  • Principles and tools of policy advocacy and public engagement
  • Strategies for evidence-based advocacy and coalition building
  • Role of civil society, media, and academia in energy governance
  • Public participation and citizen accountability mechanisms
  • Case studies of successful communication and advocacy in energy transition

Expected Competence: Participants will develop the skills to effectively communicate, advocate for and influence energy policies and reforms that promote transparency, inclusion, and sustainability

Module 6: Leadership, Innovation and the Future of Energy Transition

 

Objective: To inspire leadership and innovation in sustainable energy planning and implementation.

Key Topics:

  • Transformational leadership for the green transition
  • Africa’s leadership and priorities for sustainable energy
  • Innovation, digitalization, AI, and energy governance
  • Africa scenario planning and strategic foresight for future energy systems
  • Integrating climate resilience and just transition principles in policy and regulation

Expected Competence: Participants will gain leadership insights and strategic foresight to drive innovation, partnerships, and sustainable change in the energy sector.

Week 7: Applied Learning & Practicum

 

Objective: To provide participants with practical hands-on experience in operations of sustainable energy projects, designing sustainable energy projects, financeable and bankable projects, developing applicable policy briefs and advocacy communiques for sustainable energy.

  • Activities:
    • Case study presentations: participants analyze a real renewable energy project
    • Group project: draft a financing proposal or policy brief
    • Physical or Virtual Field visit (e.g., solar mini-grid, geothermal plant, wind farm) 

Delivery Methods

The course will employ a blended learning approach, integrating:

  • Expert-led lectures and interactive discussions
  • Practical case studies and simulations
  • Group work and peer-to-peer learning
  • Policy labs and project design sessions
  • Guest lectures from leading practitioners and global experts

Participants will receive digital resources, reading materials, and toolkits to support post-course application of skills in their professional contexts.

Target Participants

The course is designed for junior- to senior-level professionals and practitioners involved in energy, climate, and economic governance who play or aspire to play a role in shaping policy, regulation, and financing for sustainable energy.

It specifically targets:

  • Government officials and legislators involved in energy, environment, finance, infrastructure, and local government sectors.
  • Civil society leaders and policy advocates working on governance, climate justice, and sustainable development issues.
  • Private sector actors and project developers in renewable energy, infrastructure, and related industries.
  • Financial and investment professionals from banks, development finance institutions, and microfinance organizations seeking to understand green financing opportunities.
  • Academics and researchers working on energy policy, economics, and sustainability studies.
  • Development partners and international organizations supporting energy transition and green growth initiatives.

Diversity and Inclusion:
GEPC encourages participation from women, youth, and professionals from underrepresented groups to promote inclusivity and diverse perspectives in the sustainable energy transition discourse.

Admission Requirements

Applicants should meet the following minimum requirements:

  1. Educational Background:
    • At least a bachelor’s degree or equivalent qualification in a relevant field such as social sciences, political science, public policy, economics, law, environmental studies, engineering, communication, finance, or related disciplines.
    • Applicants with significant professional experience in the energy or governance sector will be considered in lieu of academic qualifications.
  2. Professional Experience:
    • At least one year of relevant work experience in government, civil society, academia, or the private sector, preferably in areas related to extractive sector, energy, public policy, climate & environment, media or economic development, banking and green financing
  3. Language Proficiency:
    • Proficiency in English (both written and spoken) is required, as the course will be conducted in English.
  4. Motivation Statement and CV:
    • Applicants must submit a brief statement (300–500 words) explaining their motivation for joining the course and how they plan to apply the knowledge gained in their professional setting. They must attach a short CV or resume plus a Headshot portrait photo
  5. Recommendation:
    • A letter of support from an employer, supervisor, work colleague or institutional head is encouraged but not mandatory.

Course Duration:  7 Weeks (12th January-27th February, 2026)

The course is designed with flexible delivery options to accommodate the varying needs of participants. The seven-week program structured into weekly modules, allowing participants to combine professional responsibilities with learning.

Certification

Upon successful completion of the course requirements, participants will receive a Certificate of Completion from the Governance and Economic Policy Centre (GEPC), jointly endorsed by partnering academic or professional institutions where applicable.

Course Fees: A Subsidized rate of USD 300. Limited scholarships will be available to exceptional and early bird applicants

Course Management:  Virtual & Online

Virtual delivery will be managed through GEPC’s Moodle and Google Classroom digital learning platform.

Essential Timelines

Date

Activity

3rd December

Advertising call for Applications

3rd January 2026

Deadline for Applications

7th January, 2026

Notification of selected participants

12th January 2026

Course Commencement

27th February 2026

End of Course and Graduation

 

How to apply:

Applications and support documents (Motivation letter, CV and Headshot photo) must be sent as a single PDF or word file by 3rd January 2026 to:  info@gepc.ortz

Youth in Climate Change and Energy Transition: How Tanzania Government can repurpose youth for SDGs, NDCs and a fossil free future

Young people are the majority of Tanzania’s population ,  destined to inherit the future yet are seriously at a risk of climate change. Many are actively engaged in mitigation measures such as tree planting campaigns with limited focus on the policy and practical measures that are required to ensure or determine a fossil free future is achieved. Effective youth participation in SDGs and NDCs is a goal that is still far from reach.

Author: Arafat Bakir Lesheve, SDG Ambassador and Junior Associate, Governance and Economic Policy Centre

# Featured photo image source: African Climate and Environmental Centre-AFAS

# Click here to register for the forthcoming webinar on implementation of SDGS and NDCs in Africa scheduled for 31st October 2024 via the Link: https://us06web.zoom.us/meeting/register/tZYodOCsqTsuEt1URomW6I9uz6IjSyzq5S96

The transition to a fossil-free future is crucial for Tanzania to achieve sustainable development and combat climate change. The United Nations has set several targets for achieving a fossil-free future by 2030 and 2050. These targets aim to enhance international cooperation in the fight against climate change, promote clean energy research and technology, reduce reliance on fossil fuels, reduce greenhouse gas emissions and speed up the transition to clean and renewable sources of energy.

In 2021 Tanzania developed its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which spells out how the government plans to build resilience against climate change and contribute to clean future. The NDC is anchored on delivering a fossil free future by 2050 yet the document and its implementation has remained largely a technical exercise with limited knowledge and participation of young people.

Many young people are actively engaged in mitigation measures such as tree planting campaigns with limited knowledge, focus, engagement and participation in the policy and practical measures that are required to ensure or determine a fossil free future is achieved.  With the youth comprising over 65% of Tanzania’s total population, engaging and empowering young people will be crucial to the success of these national and global targets.

This short brief exposes the opportunities , gaps and the need for an intentional repurposing of Tanzania’s youth in climate change and the implementation of the NDC along with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) so as to achieve a fossil free future by 2030 and 2050.

Climate Change and a fossil free future in Tanzania 

Despite being among the least polluters, Tanzania is seriously affected by climate change. The country has experienced irregular rainfall patterns, extended droughts, floods and deforestation. Currently, a significant proportion (about 70%) of all types of natural disasters in Tanzania are climate change related and are linked to recurrent droughts and floods.

The most recent projections for climate change in Tanzania (Future Climate for Africa, 2017)9 show a strong agreement on continued future warming in the range of 0.8°C to 1.8°C by the 2040s, evenly distributed across Tanzania. The warming trend leads to a corresponding increase in the number of days above 30°C by 20-50 days in the central and eastern parts and up to 80 additional days in the coastal area of Tanzania.  Warming until 2090 is projected in the range of 1.6°C to 5.0°C depending on the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere[1]

Moreover, climate change’s impact on Tanzania’s forest cover and sensitive ecosystems has been increasing.  According to reports, Tanzania’s forest cover has reduced by at least one third over the past decade, thereby reducing the coverage of the natural carbon sink that has protected us for generations.  Annually, almost 38% of Tanzania’s forest cover is being lost at the rate of about 400,000 ha annually and should this continue, the country would deplete its forest cover in the next 50-80 years[2].

Figure 1: Map of forest loss in Tanzania during 2010–2017 and location of ground survey points

The extreme weather patterns affect National Economic growth due to large dependence of Tanzania’s Growth Domestic Product (GDP) on Climate sensitive activities such as agriculture. The recent floods affected crops and farmland while the extended droughts in some regions have increased food insecurity and poverty by almost half. Sensitive ecological and biodiversity systems hosted within from forests and wooded areas are affected and climate related diseases such as malaria in previously cold and less malaria prone regions such as Moshi, Arusha, Lushoto, Iringa and Mbeya are on the increase.

According to medical reports, malaria is a major public health problem in mainland Tanzania and a leading cause of morbidity and mortality, particularly in children under five years of age and pregnant women.  Moreover, the climate condition has become favourable for transmission throughout almost the entire country, with about 95% of mainland Tanzania at risk.

Over the past few years Tanzania now has the third largest population at risk of stable malaria in Africa after Nigeria and Democratic Republic of the Congo[1]. Clearly, there is a nexus between climate change and the social-economic and public policy challenges that Tanzania faces.

Figure 2: Malaria Prevalence in Mainland Tanzania 2017-2019: Source: Research Gate

The UN’s perilous search for a fossil free future

The UN under the Agenda 2030 targets to achieve a fossil free future by reducing global greenhouse gas emissions by half by 2030 and to achieve net zero by 2050.

For this to be feasible the world has to gradually transit from the use of fossil-based fuels towards renewables and clean energy sources.  Fossil fuels, such as coal, oil and gas, are by far the largest contributor to global climate change, accounting for over 75 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions and nearly 90 percent of all carbon dioxide emissions.

Therefore, ramping up investment in alternative sources of energy that are clean, accessible, affordable, sustainable, and reliable offers a way out of the enormous climate change challenges that we face. To achieve this requires a radical shift in global energy system but equally collective participation.  The UN has encouraged countries to develop and implement Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), as road maps towards a sustainable cleaner future, yet many countries like Tanzania face a bumpy road ahead. The underfunding and limited meaningful participation by the youth is holding back success.

Climate Change, SDGs and the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) in Tanzania

In line with the UN Paris Agreement and call to climate action, the Tanzanian government set targets for climate change response and achieving a fossil-free future. The government aims to accelerate mitigation and adaptation measures, cutting Green House Emissions and contributing towards a transition to cleaner and renewable sources of energy.

These targets are clearly stipulated in Tanzania’s National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), National Climate Change Response Strategies (NCCRS) and most recently the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) in 2021.  The NDC provides a set of interventions on adaptation and mitigation which are expected to build Tanzania’s resilience to the impacts of climate change and at the same time contribute to the global efforts to reduce greenhouse gases.

According to the NDC, the government commits to reduce greenhouse gas emissions economy-wide between 30- 35% relative to the Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario by 2030. The NDC further indicates that about 138-153 million tons of Carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e)-gross emissions is expected to be reduced depending on the baseline efficiency improvements, consistent with its sustainable development agenda.

The NDC goals are aligned to the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDCs) 2015, in particular SDG13 and other closely related goals such as SDG (1.7,12,14,15.16 &17). They further in synchrony with the Agenda 2063 on the Future of Africa We want and the Sendai Framework on Disaster Risk Reduction (2011).

To achieve these targets, the government commits to consider the impacts of climate change in development planning at all levels and to pursue adaptation measures as outlined in the NDC. Despite these efforts, many SDG targets are off course and NDC’s implementation has been slow. The NDC implementation is faced with financial, governance, institutional and participation gaps, which are delaying or may ultimately thwart its successful achievement of a climate safe and fossil free future.

Gaps in Climate Change, NDC and SDG implementation

The Economics of climate change and implementation of SDGs and the NDC for a climate safe and fossil free future is proving to be an expensive affair.

According to The Economics of Climate Change reports for Mainland Tanzania (2011) and Zanzibar (2011) , an initial cost estimate of addressing current climate change risks is about USD 500 million per year[2].  These reports provide indicative costs for enhancing adaptive capacity and long-term resilience in Tanzania.  This cost is projected to increase rapidly in the future, with an estimate of up to USD 1 billion per year by 2030[3].

Further, the net economic costs of addressing climate change impacts are estimated to be equivalent to 1 to 2% of GDP per year by 20305. Similarly, Tanzania would require an investment of approximately USD 160 billion for mitigation activities aimed at achieving 100% renewable energy for electricity, buildings, and industry by 2050[4]. In total the NDC estimates that USD19,232,170,000 is required for its full implementation.

Moreover, Tanzania is facing several challenges related to weak institutional, financial constraints, poor access to appropriate technologies; weak climate knowledge management, inadequate participation of key stakeholders, and low public awareness have significantly affected effective implementation of various strategies, programmes, and plans[5]

The government has identified an institutional and governance framework for implementation. This includes the National Steering Committees and National Technical Committees for Mainland Tanzania and Zanzibar.  It further mentions the need for mainstreaming intervention but conspicuously, misses listing or identifying the youth as key stakeholders in this implementation.

With tweaks to its current policy and practice landscape, by purposefully targeting involvement of more young people, we believe, Tanzania’s achievement of its SDGs targets and climate change and energy transition goals as elaborated in the NDCs and overall National Development Plans could be faster

Tanzania’s road towards a fossil free future

In 2014 the per capita emissions of the United Republic of Tanzania were estimated at 0.22 tCO2e[1] . This was significantly below global average of 7.58 tCO2e[2] recorded in the same year. However, given the disproportional effect of climate change, adaptation to the adverse impacts continues to be a topmost priority in the implementation of the NDC.

Tanzania underlines the importance of harnessing opportunities and benefits available in mitigating climate change through pursuing a sustainable, low-carbon development pathway in the context of sustainable development. Thus, the NDC takes into account global ambition of keeping temperature increase well below 2°C as per the Paris Agreement.

Moreover, Tanzania is aiming for a greater use of natural gas and harnessing renewable energy sources to reduce on emissions. There are an estimated 57 trillion cubic feet of discovered reserves of which to-date over 100 million cubic feet have been exploited to produce 527 MW10. The government acknowledges that whilst natural gas is a fossil fuel, and therefore contributes to increasing climate change, it results in half the CO2 emissions as charcoal

Currently the government of Tanzania aims to shift away from biomass and increase the share of renewable energy sources such as hydro, wind, and solar in its energy use mix. Tanzania’s energy sector is currently dominated by traditional biomass; accounting for more than 82% of the total energy consumption as of 2019. As of 2022 energy usage in households, charcoal and wood represented 87% of the energy used, Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) accounted for 10%, and other sources such as electricity accounted for about 3%[3].

Secondly, Tanzania has an estimated hydro potential of up to 4.7GW. However, as of 2021, only 573.7 MW (around 12%) of hydro capacity had been installed. The government plans to further develop its hydro capacity to increase the share of renewable energy.

Thirdly, while Tanzania aims to increase its renewable energy generation, there are also plans to ramp up investment in natural gas and coal. The government aims to reach 6700MW (33%) from natural gas and 5300MW (26%) from coal by 2044. However, further investments or reliance on fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas is considered as an energy transition risk as the country may lock itself into a high carbon-intensive pathway and thereby running contrary to achieving the NDC goals.

Furthermore, Tanzania has significant deposits of critical minerals that are considered essential for the clean energy transition. These minerals include nickel, graphite, copper, lithium, and others. The demand for these minerals expected to increase as clean energy technologies develop. This presents an opportunity for Tanzania to benefit from their extraction to value addition hence powering the global transition to a green economy.

The youth dividend and missed opportunities for climate change, NDCs and SDGs in Tanzania

Globally, the youth represent a significant portion of the population and their active involvement and engagement in supporting government and UN targets are essential. According to Tanzania’s 2022 census reports, the youth (under 35 years) constitute significant proportion (over 60%) of Tanzania’s population.  They account for the largest active labour force of the population and no doubt have potentials   to bring about economic growth and development of the country. Moreover, the demographics and dynamics of youth have changed substantially over the last decade. Many young people are highly educated and technologically exposed and skilled.  They are a dividend waiting to be utilized in many respects.

The implementation of Tanzania’s NDC is supposed to be guided by the principles of the UNFCCC, particularly the principle of equity and that of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. Furthermore, the implementation is supposed to be implemented in a transparent and participatory manner in accordance with the provisions of the Paris Agreement. Despite these principles, the youth are yet to be fully engaged and harnessed for climate change and a fossil free future.

Since 2006 government has made efforts by developing the National Climate Adaptations Programs and the National Climate Change Strategy. However, Tanzania does not have a climate change policy and its practical engagement of youth despite the numbers has been quite fragmented.

Despite the major progress made, very limited deliberate and structured youth engagement opportunities have been created. For example, there is a government initiative on clean cooking targeting women but is not clear what role the youth can play in this campaign. Moreover, the Youth Policy is not aligned with the Climate Change and Energy policy. The NDC for example is very silent on youth and mentions these in generic terms lobed together under the gender considerations. Governance challenges and weak intra-government coordination exists. There is weak insufficient capacity and resources for youth to engage.

To date, this potential of Tanzania’s youth participation, in the context of the global climate change is largely limited or focused on climate mitigation while engagement in energy transition discourse towards a fossil free future has been substantively low.

How can youth be repurposed for climate change, SDGs and NDC implementation for a fossil free future? 

There are collective actions that Tanzanian youth can uptake to support government plans and UN targets for SDGs, NDCs and a clean future by 2030 and 2050. These includes actions such as creating a facilitative environment,  investment in advocacy, awareness creation, skills development, creating of innovations, movement mobilization, partnership and collaboration for the goals. Tanzanian youth possess the energy, innovation, and sense of urgency required to drive the transition to a fossil-free future. By leveraging their skills and passion, young people can play a vital role with multiple entry points as below.

1. Promote education amongst youth on SDGs and NDCs in Tanzania

As indicated, despite the good intentions and targets set in the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs and the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), these goals and documents remain largely unknown to youth and young people in Tanzania. Deliberate efforts to popularize them can ramp up youth uptake and support in their implementation.

2. Raise Awareness and Advocate for Renewable Energy:

Towards achieving this, the youth and other stakeholders, including the government should organize awareness campaigns and workshops to educate youth about the benefits of renewable energy and the negative impacts of fossil fuels. As the population continues to grow, so will the demand for cheap energy, and an economy reliant on fossil fuels is creating drastic changes to our climate; Investing in solar, wind and thermal power, improving energy productivity, and ensuring energy for all is vital if we are to achieve SDG 7 by 2030.

 Tanzania Youth led organizations must be supported to amplify the voices of Tanzanian youth in advocating for a transition to renewable energy. Engage in advocacy efforts to promote renewable energy policies and initiatives at the local, national, and international levels; 

2. Promote Energy Efficiency and Conservation

Tanzanian youth can organize campaigns and workshops to raise awareness about the importance of energy efficiency and conservation. They can educate their peers and communities about the benefits of using energy-efficient appliances, reducing energy consumption, and adopting sustainable practices.

Dr. Samia Suluhu Hasan the President of the United Republic of Tanzania is a global champion of clean cooking solutions that aims to address over reliance on toxic biomass, gender inequality against women as well as reduce impact of climate change.  Tanzania’s youth should be in frontline to promote clean cooking solution with the country.

For the government to support youth roles is key to encourage energy-efficient practices among youth by promoting energy-saving habits in households, schools, and communities. Youth and youth led organizations should be supported to advocate for the implementation of energy-efficient infrastructure and appliances in public spaces and buildings.

NGOs, and government agencies must collaborate with energy experts to develop engaging and interactive training materials that cater for the needs and interests of young people towards promoting energy efficiency.

3. Advocating for policy changes

Advocating for policy changes is a crucial step in promoting renewable energy and climate action. Tanzanian youth have the opportunity to actively engage with local and national government representatives to push for policies that support renewable energy and discourage the use of fossil fuels.

Through outreach to their government representatives, youth can express their concerns about climate change and the need for renewable energy policies. They can request meetings or participate in public forums to discuss the importance of transitioning to renewable energy sources and highlight the benefits it can bring to the environment and the economy. By sharing their knowledge and experiences, youth can help policymakers understand the urgency of taking action on climate change and recognize the potential of renewable energy.

Additionally, youth-led organizations and initiatives focused on climate action must provide a platform for young people to come together and advocate for sustainable policies.

4. Engage in Sustainable Agriculture and Land Use

Tanzania youth must be supported to engage in sustainable agriculture and land use. Engaging in sustainable agriculture is of paramount importance in promoting environmental conservation and reducing reliance on fossil fuel-based inputs in farming practices. Tanzanian youth have a significant role to play in actively supporting and advocating for sustainable farming methods that prioritize organic techniques, agroforestry, and permaculture.

5. Foster Entrepreneurship and Innovation in Renewable Energy

Support young people to engage in entrepreneurship and renewable energy. Participating in green entrepreneurship presents Tanzanian youth with exciting prospects to contribute to the sustainable energy sector while establishing their own businesses. By developing innovative solutions for energy efficiency and conservation, young entrepreneurs can make a positive impact on the environment and contribute to the country’s economic growth.

6. Engaging in waste management practices

Promoting environmental sustainability and mitigating the harmful effects of waste necessitate active engagement in waste management practices. Tanzanian youth can play a vital role by championing recycling, composting, and waste reduction initiatives within schools, communities, and households.

By raising awareness about recycling’s significance and providing resources for proper waste separation, the youth can redirect recyclable materials away from landfills, thus fostering a circular economy. Moreover, they can advocate for composting as an effective means of minimizing organic waste while generating nutrient-rich soil for gardening and agriculture. Through their enthusiastic involvement in waste management, Tanzanian youth can contribute significantly to creating cleaner and more sustainable communities and a brighter future for the environment.

Conclusively, Tanzania’s road towards a fossil free future has so far been bumpy and marked with commitments and challenges. Tanzania however has opportunities amongst its youthful population and can turn up the tide to ride faster towards net zero.

References

[1] National Climate Change Strategy, Vice President’s Office, United Republic of Tanzania.

[2] Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR), Joint Research Centre (JRC).

[3] ibid

[1] https://web-archive.lshtm.ac.uk/www.linkmalaria.org/country-profiles/tanzania.html

[2] The Economics of Climate change in the United Republic of Tanzania, January 2011

[3] Ibid

[4] URT; Tanzania’s Nationally Determined Contributions, 2021

[5] URT; Tanzania’s Nationally Determined Contributions, 2021

[1] URT: Tanzania Nationally Determined Contribution, 2021

[2] https://dicf.unepgrid.ch/united-republic-tanzania/forest

Solar and Energy Transition: Good policy intentions but less progress: Assessing Tanzania and EAC’s Utility scale solar energy potential and policy gaps to fix

Governments are struggling with little success to attract and retain utility scale solar projects and many have died in their nascent stages. Yet utility scale solar projects could be a significant contributor to resolving the regions power shortages and increased energy access by sizeable proportions. So, what is holding back utility scale solar projects and how can governments maneuver to attract and retain more investors. 

By Moses Kulaba, Governance and Economic Policy Centre

@energypolicy @cleanenergy @solarafrica @energytransition

Multiple studies have concluded that the Eastern Africa region has the highest technical potential for solar power technologies, with estimates of 175 PWh and 220 PWh annually for Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) and Photovoltaics (PV) respectively. African countries with the highest CSP and PV potentials are Algeria, Egypt, Namibia, South Africa, Sudan, and Tanzania.  The annual technical solar power potential in Tanzania is estimated to be 31,482 TWh for CSP technology and 38,804 TWh for PV technology. Despite this potential, Tanzania and EAC lags behind its peers such as South Africa, Algeria and Egypt. Besides the technical aspects as earlier discussed, the policy terrain in East Africa has been largely zig zag and therefore not coherent enough to support investment.

In this second part of our analytical series on solar as a clean energy source, we attempt to shade some light on the policy terrain in Tanzania and East Africa generally and how this is contributing towards holding back large-scale investment and utility scale solar penetration.

Policy and investment terrain

Generally, the policy and investment landscape in East Africa has been evolving at a snail pace. Both Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda have renewable energy policies in place however these are not backed up by adequate promotion, implementation and funding. The regulatory terrain has also been discordant.  For the region to benefit, the policy and investment trajectory will have to align and move faster, catching up with the global trends and the drive to clean energy.

Tanzania’s policy terrain.

The government passed a National Energy Policy (NEP) in 2015 with a commitment to increase the share of renewables in its energy mix. The NEP 2015 seeks to facilitate improvement of investment environment to promote and support private sector participation. The policy further commits to scaling up utilization of renewable energy source by among others introducing a.. feed-in-tariffs for renewable energy technologies and structure power purchase agreements for renewable energy.  

It further commits to facilitate integration of renewable energy technologies in buildings and industrial designs and establish frameworks for renewable energy integration into the national and isolated grids; an Promote sustainable biofuel production and usage.

However, actualization of this has been slow. To date contribution of renewables to Tanzania’s energy mix remains low at 1.2 %. By 2021 Tanzania’s electricity generation came mostly from natural gas (48%), followed by hydro (31%), petrol (18%) with solar and biofuels contributing a mere 1% each. The National energy consumption balance is still dominated with biomas (charcoal and firewood) use at around 85%.

Tanzania government admits that that solar utilization is constrained by high initial costs, poor after sales services, insufficient awareness on its potential and economic benefits offered by solar technologies plus inappropriate credit financing mechanisms.

Previous policies, particularly the 2003 was successful in the establishment and operationalization of Energy and Water utilities regulatory authorities, the Rural Energy Agency (REA) and the Rural Energy Fund, However, it fell short of making advancements on the renewable energy, particularly by not creating a designated and operational Renewable Energy Fund. By design it is implied that funding of the renewable sector would come directly from the consolidated Energy Fund. However, with conflicting priorities and government’s focus on increasing energy access to hydro and gas fired electricity, much of the available funding was channeled towards rural electrification.

In 2012 Tanzania was one of the pilot countries selected to prepare the Scaling Up Renewable Energy Program (SREP). The chief objective of this plan was to transform the energy sector of Tanzania from one that is more dependent on fossil fuels to one that is more diversified with a greater share of renewable sources contributing to the energy mix through catalyzing the large–scale development of renewable energy.

The SREP–Tanzania Investment Plan was prepared by the Government of Tanzania, through a National Task Force led by the Ministry of Energy and Minerals (MEM) with support from the Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs). However much of this plan is yet to fully takeoff and its translation into actual deliverables yet to materialise

Cognizant of the significant gaps that exist, in 2023 the Minister of energy at time, Hon January Makamba revealed that the government was developing a new Renewable Energy Policy to further enhance investments in renewable energy. This policy would capitalize on the substantial financial resources, capital markets, and advancements in new technologies dedicated to renewable energy globally. He also announced ongoing efforts to identify areas with renewable energy resources and prioritize native investments in wind and solar projects. The government would provide support in this regard and establish guidelines for project implementation.

In 2023 Tanzania entered into an agreement to construct the Country’s first-ever solar photovoltaic power station to feed into the national electricity grid. According to the Ministry of Energy, the project is part of a larger initiative of installing 150 MW of solar energy in the Kishapu district of the Shinyanga region. The first phase of the project to be constructed by Sinohydro Corporation from China was estimated at TZS 109 billion and was scheduled for completion before end of 2024.

According to the Minister, the implementation of the solar project reflected the government’s commitment to establishing a diverse mix of electricity sources in the national grid, incorporating water, gas, wind, and solar power. This approach aims to ensure a continuous supply of electricity, even in the event of a failure in one source.

There are also several large-scale solar power projects under development, including the 30 MW Singida project and the 50 MW Nyumba ya Mungu project. In addition to government efforts, there are also private companies and organizations working to develop renewable energy projects in Tanzania.

Similarly, Zanzibar, the semi-autonomous Island of Tanzania, also signed in 2023 an agreement with a Mauritius-based Generation Capital Ltd and Tanzania’s Taifa Energy to build its first large-scale 30MW solar PV power plant, as it seeks to become energy independent. The plant will cost $140 million. The Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) between the state-owned Zanzibar Electricity Corporation (Zeco) and the two companies to develop the 180 megawatts plant will be implemented in phases, according to Zanzibar’s Ministry of Energy and Minerals.

Kenya’s solar terrain

Garissa Solar Farm

So far, Kenya is leading in large solar projects.  There are at least 10 large solar farms in Kenya. The Garisa solar farm, is the largest in East and Central Africa, with 55 MW generation capacity. The solar farm sits on85 hectares (210 acres) and consists of 206,272 265Wp solar panels and 1,172 42kW inverters owned and operated by Rural Electrification and Renewable Energy Corporation. Others already operational or proposed include; Malindi Solar (52MW), Alten Kasses (52 MW), Kopere Solar Project (50MW), Eldosol Solar Project (48MW), Radiant (50MW), Rumuruti (40 MW), Nakuru Solar project (40MW), Witu (40MW) and Makindu (40MW).

Kenya has buttressed its renewable energy credentials with a new Energy Transition and Investment Plan (ETIP) launched in 2023. The ETIP spells out Kenya’s road map to delivering a 100% clean energy driven economy by 2050. The country is however yet to figure out how it will fund this ambitious plan. Over the past recent years Kenya has been facing significant budgetary constraints affecting funding of its major national development plans. Even when the government has committed to achieving 100% clean energy by 2030, it bets heavily on funding from external donors. With the recent trend in aid inflows and if they remain unchanged in the short and medium term, it will be a tall order Kenya to meet this target.

Uganda’s solar uptake

Uganda has been slowly catching up with its peers. Uganda’s policy commits to make modern renewable energy a substantial part of the national energy consumption. To increase the use of modern renewable energy, from the current 4% to 61% of the total energy consumption by the year 2017[i].

The policy terrain has been zigzagging and investment in renewables is still low but the government has blended its focus on hydropower generation with small investments in solar projects as back up for its hydropower. There was a big growth in 2021, reaching 92 MW, followed by a significant increase of around 6.9 MW, reaching a total of 98.9 MW Uganda’s installed solar energy capacity in 2022.

Some of the projects contributing to this growth include Kabulasoke Solar PV Park is a 20MW solar PV power project, located in Central, Uganda, Bufulubi solar project in Tororo and Access solar plants in Soroti.  New pipeline projects include the Amea West Nile Solar PV Park, a ground-mounted solar project, whose construction was expected to commence from 2024 and subsequently enter into commercial operation in 2025. The power generated from the project will be sold to Uganda Electricity Transmission under a power purchase agreement. 

This however falls short of achieving the targets as stipulated in Uganda’s Renewable Energy policy. Uganda’s renewable energy policy commits to establish and maintain a responsive legislative, appropriate financing and fiscal policy framework for investments in renewable energy technologies. It mentions forms of financing such as strengthening the Credit Support Facility and Smart Subsidies which are intended to scale up investments in renewable energy and rural electrification.

Moreover, a special financial mechanism, a credit support facility known as the Uganda Energy Capitalisation Trust, was instituted to help realise the policy but this expired in 2012 and had never been renewed[ii]. Uganda lags in meeting its policy targets as only 10 solar projects had been completed by 2022[iii].

What is the current market and investment size?

According to global energy reports, there is a substantive market size of solar photovoltaic (PV) in East Africa and Africa generally. The Middle East & Africa solar photovoltaic (PV) market size was valued at USD 5.00 billion in 2022. The market was projected to grow from USD 6.93 billion in 2023 to USD 37.71 billion by 2030, exhibiting a cumulative Average growth rate (CAGR) of 27.4% during the forecast period.

Despite its immense solar power potential, East Africa and Africa generally continues to lag behind other continents when it comes to building up utility scale grid and off-grid solar capacity, in part due to a stagnant policy regime, overlapping institutional roles, limited research, technical capacity and lack of appropriate financing facilities for investment.  Some proposed projects have failed to take off.  As a consequence, the total investment share of utility scale projects into East Africa remains comparable low.  

So, what can EAC governments do to make utility scale solar markets attractive?

Recommendations

# Governments must make policy switches from paper to aggressive attracting of investment into the solar PV East African markets. The policies may exist but the implementation gap is too big. Policy interventions and a national course-correction is urgently needed to effectively overcome structural barriers and create local value in the emerging solar market many of which is still left behind in this progress.

# Decentralization of energy generation away from vertically integrated power monopolies such as TANESCO and Kenya power could be a game changer.  De regulation and introduction of net metering by independent Solar PV power producers to directly generate and sell to customers could improve profitability of solar projects and attract new investments.

# Financing institutions must scale up project financing of renewable energy projects.  Solar projects are still expensive and funding is difficult to come by. Kenya’s Garisa solar project required an investment of KSh13. 7 billion ($135.7 million) and was funded by the Exim Bank of China. Other projects have required substantive investment with funds generated from private developers and energy venture capitalists. The existing financial institutions are yet to master tailing project financing to utility scale solar projects.

# Addressing land rights and underlying injustices. Large solar farms require large tracts of land and these can be a source of land grabbing, land deprivation and injustice, generating conflicts and endless litigation between potential investors and the communities. The renewable policies and investments have to sit well with land rights, guaranteeing free prior informed consent, fair compensation and equity,

# Socio-economic: Identifying and prioritizing suitable areas for building large-scale solar power plants is a complex problem. In contrast with the simplistic view, identifying appropriate geographical areas for solar power installation is not only linked with the amount of received solar radiation, but there are many other technical, economic, environmental, and social factors that should be considered like: alternative land uses, topographical characteristics of the land, conserving protected areas, potential environmental impacts, water availability, potential urban expansion, proximity to demand centers, roads proximity, and potential for grid connectivity.

# Solar technology firms must address intermittence and storage of renewable energy. Solar power is generally reliant on the availability of sunshine. Depending on the weather and hours of the day and night. Unfortunately, the technology has not advanced far enough and made cheaply available to East for storage of solar power. For solar power users the days are hot and the nights are cold.

# Government leaders must have a unified political will to support renewables as part of the master energy mix and regional energy power pool. So far there is a divided political opinion on what solar power can do in helping the governments to meet their national energy demands. While Kenya is a front runner, other countries are still focused on hydro and gas. The future of distributed solar therefore depends largely on good political will driving favorable polices and changing mindset to embrace solar power as a new source of energy. This could be reflected in new generation policy drivers such as requirement for solar considerations in building designs and integrated power systems.

[i] Renewable Policy for Uganda; https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/s3.sourceafrica.net/documents/118159/Uganda-Renewable-Energy-Policy.pdf

 

[ii]

[iii]

Energy Transition: Understanding basics of solar energy and why it has failed to peak in East Africa

 

East Africa has abundant hot sunshine around the year yet harvesting this for large utility scale electricity has remained small. Partially, it is because the technical aspects of solar power make it a complicated energy source system than it may appear. Understanding is important in helping to shape policy and accelerated solarisation.

By Moses Kulaba, Governance and Economic Policy Center

@energy transition @solarenergy @solarafrica  @energypolicy

Early in March 2024 a heat wave hit South Sudan with temperatures soaring between 41 to 47 degrees Celsius. The temperature and its accompanying heat were too high that the South Sudanese Ministry of Health closed schools, advised the public to stay indoors and drink a lot of water to remain hydrated.  

The images of South Sudanese baking eggs under the open sun on the streets of Juba went viral rekindling the debate on the potential of harnessing solar energy to generate power. In a two part articles and policy briefs we discuss the technical aspects of solar power and the policy terrain undermining the utility scale investment levels in East Africa.

East Africa has abundant hot sunshine around the year yet harvesting this for large utility scale electricity has remained small. With about 50 MW generation, the Garissa Solar Plant is the largest grid connected solar power plant in East & Central Africa.

So far Egypt has the largest solar park in Africa. It spans 37 kilometers and has a total generation capacity of around 1.8 gigawatts, which is enough to power hundreds of thousands of homes and towns. The question is therefore asked why have we not seen large uptake of utility scale solar projects in East Africa? The answer zeros down to technology, political will and mindset.

The technical aspects of solar power make it a complicated energy source system than it may appear.  The mechanics behind solar power and how it can be harnessed with impact on a larger scale can/ is more complicated than it may appear. Harnessing solar for electricity generation requires technical expertise, political will and investment.  This brief dissects the basics of solar power and its potentials as a Peaker clean power source for East Africa.

What is solar power

According to scientists, solar energy comes from nuclear reactions which happen deep in the sun’s core. The sun is a giant hot glowing mass of hydrogen and helium at the center of our solar system.

Every second the sun burns and loses about 4 million tons of mass in a continuous complex nuclear fusion reaction. That mass when converted into energy is what drives solar energy outwards from the sun radiating into the solar system. Solar energy radiates from the sun as electromagnetic waves of different frequencies and energies which can be trapped and transformed into solar electricity.

The solar panel collects energy from the sun, this energy goes into an inverter, which is a key component of a solar PV installation. The inverter converts the steady electric power coming into the inverter into alternating current (AC) which is the predominant form of power used in an electric grid or connected to a service panel at a house.

Role of solar in global power systems

Globally the role of solar is still small although it has been increasing over the years. Solar power contributes about 10% of all renewable energy and 1% of total world energy. Bioenergy, hydro power and wind contribute the bulk (90%) of the total renewable energy of about 900 Mtoe, accounting for 10.5% of total energy use. Solar photovoltaic and solar thermal provide 5% each of renewable energy. These statistics are growing as the world constantly moves towards clean energy solutions by 2030.

According to Renewable Capacity Statistics 2024 report released by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) shows that 2023 set a new record in renewables deployment in the power sector by reaching a total capacity of 3, 870 Gigawatts (GW) globally.

With solar energy continuing to dominate renewable generation capacity expansion, the report underscores that the growth disparity did not only affect geographical distribution but also the deployment of technologies. Solar accounted for 73% of the renewable growth last year, reaching 1 419 GW, followed by wind power with 24% share of renewable expansion.

Renewables accounted for 86% of capacity additions; however, this growth is unevenly distributed across the world, indicating a trend far from the tripling renewable power target by 2030.

The 473 GW of renewables expansion was led once again by Asia with a 69% share (326 GW). This growth was driven by China, whose capacity increased by 63%, reaching 297.6 GW. This reflects a glaring gap with other regions, leaving a vast majority of developing countries behind, despite massive economic and development needs. Even though Africa has seen some growth, it paled in comparison with an increase of 4.6%, reaching a total capacity of 62 GW. Clearly, the room for solar as a new form of energy is still available.

Determinants of solar power and characteristics

The amount of solar received on the earth is determined by a number of factors such as what is technically called irradiance and irradiation. Solar Irradiance is the term generally used to measure the solar flax at a given location and is usually quoted in units of Watts per square meter. Solar Irradiation is used to measure the long-term average solar flax at a given location and usually quoted in Kwh per square meter.

This can further be categorized as Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI) which is the solar power measured at the surface of the earth at a given location with a surface element perpendicular to the sun’s rays. Diffused Horizontal Irradiance/irradiation (DHI) measuring the radiation at the earth’s surface from light scattered by the atmosphere and Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI) which is the total irradiance from the sun measured at the earth surface on a horizontal plane.

Africa is often considered and referred to as the “Sun continent” or the continent where the Sun’s influence is the greatest.  According to the “World Sunshine Map”, Africa receives many more hours of bright sunshine during the course of the year than any other continent of the Earth and many of the sunniest places on the planet lie here.  This has also been. recognized by the international council of science who confidently pointed out that Africa has the best resources when it comes to solar power availability. This resource is usually measured in form of solar irradiance.

The amount of solar irradiation and irradiance are further determined by factors such as

  1. Geographical location and proximity to the equator, whereby close proximity to the equator provides short distance to the sun with the sun rays having a direct strike to the earth’s surface and therefore higher temperatures optimal for solar energy.
  2. Elevation above, where by the higher you go, the more exposure to sunlight and amount of sunshine received
  3. Seasonality of weather, cloud cover and precipitation, which determine how much sunshine is recorded at a given location.

Strategically located along the equator, East Africa receives between 500-3500 hours of sunshine per year, therefore making it a perfect site for harnessing solar energy throughout the year.

Trends of Solar installations and future of utility scale solar power

Solar Photo Voltaic (PV) installations have been increasing beyond expected projections, however the rate is still too low to pace the required demand.  The costs of solar PVs have been dropping constantly by around 20% for every doubling of cumulative shipped volume. At the present rates the costs could have about every 10 years.

Solar panels are made from semi-conductor materials which conduct photovoltaic cells through a complex process of doping and bonding as energy moves through different bands to release electricity. This harnessed for domestic use or as Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) for Utility scale electricity generation. According to statistics CSP is expected to grow by nearly 90% over the next 5 years and nearly tripling the rate of the past 5 years.

Solar and Socio-economic effects

Utility scale solar projects require large tracts of land to set up. For example, the 1,547 MW China Great Wall Project in the Tegger Desert occupies 1200 square kilometers of land with an installed solar field of 43 square kilometers. The US Star 1 and 2 project sits on a large piece of land with1,720,000 panels field generating 1,664 MW enough to power 255,000 homes.  This requirement for size to pave way for their establishments, can lead to land grabbing, mass evictions and displacements escalating socio-economic conflicts between the local residents and the investors. East Africa is already awash with land-based conflicts, displacement from ancestral lands and unfair compensation of victims.

Solar and the environment

Because of its low penetration, the environmental impacts of solar energy are still minimal.  These could increase as the uptake expands however the following can be noted

  • Land use and eco system. Solar farms at utility scale electricity generation requires large areas of land and this can cause disturbances to the land vegetation and sensitive eco-systems. The thousands of solar panels spread across hundreds of square meters can be an eye sore and environmental nuisance
  • Impacts on birds (avian): Solar can have adverse impacts to birds through distraction inflight eye sights and incineration. According to a study by the USGs estimated that its Ivanpah CSP plant in Nevada was incinerating about 6000 birds per year. Globally it was estimated that between 40,000 to 140,000 birds died due to large utility scale solar projects.
  • Toxic materials used; Solar panels are produced using toxic materials such as silicon which reacts and decomposes to produce tetrachloride, a toxic substance must be well disposed as an industrial waste.

Generally, solar is not carbon free based on a 30-year life cycle analysis but has a very low carbon foot print. This carbon foot print could increase as solar penetration expands matching the global drive towards a clean energy future. However, for now it remains one of cleanest source of energy.

Please read our next article on Tanzania and EAC’s potential and the policy terrain and regulation