The Nexus of Climate Change and Energy Transition on women in Tanzania: Why and how government must address gaps

While Tanzania has made some progress in addressing climate change, significant policy and governance gaps to leverage women power still exist. Addressing these gaps requires putting in place a Climate Change policy, strengthening institutional capacity, enhancing coordination, improving legal frameworks, promoting transparency, and ensuring women inclusive decision-making processes backed with sustainable funding. An organ similar to a National Women in Climate Change and Energy Council, could be an ideal vehicle for channeling and championing women participation in climate change and energy transition in Tanzania. Conducting periodic women congresses on Climate Change, Gender and Energy Transition would propel this even further.

Author(s):  Gloria Shechambo, Researcher and Moses Kulaba,  Governance and Economic Policy Centre

Featured Photo: Courtesy of Pastoral Women Council, Tanzania (Africa Climate Adaptation Centre)

As covered in  the first part of this analytical brief, Tanzania has made some progress in addressing climate change by putting in place a number of frameworks. While these frameworks provide a foundation, more targeted policies integrating gender considerations are essential to promote women’s participation and leadership of climate change and energy justice driven initiatives. To date, significant governance gaps still undermine efforts to address climate change and energy concerns in Tanzania.           

 In Tanzania, the main policy and governance gap is that the Country does not have a single comprehensive Climate Change Policy to guide the governance of the sector. As a consequence there are significant coordination and risks for duplicated efforts spread across different documents and institutions, with little synergy.

Moreover issues of  women concern in climate change and energy are not tackled as an independent urgent contemporary issue but has been mainstreamed in this labyrinth of policy and regulation framework.

The problem with this mainstreaming approach is that when a critical issue such as gender is mainstreamed, it fades into depth of elaborate policy texts and loses the core urgency that it deserves. In fact, instead of getting mainstreamed, the issue gets out streamed and gradually loses core attention.

For example, while the National Climate Change Response Strategy 2023 is keen on Mainstreaming Gender, it does not provide a distinct organ through which women can channel their opinions on matters related to climate change and energy. Similarly, the National Strategy for Mainstreaming Gender in Climate Change (NSMGCC) is weak in this area. A part from providing guidance on how gender considerations should be made in policies and budgeting matters, the document does not create a distinct forum for women.  

The National Energy Policy 2015 (NEP 2015) is awkwardly silent on gender in energy sector and therefore does not provide and pivots on which a compressive engagement of women in energy can be built.  The LPG promotion plan and the National Gas Utilisation Master Plan have largely remained an implemented and the recent clean cooking gas initiative is an attempt to put this into action[1].

The government acknowledges that despite significant progress from the above efforts by the government and other stakeholders, there remain needs for increased mainstreaming of gender at all levels of climate change interventions including in policy, programs, strategies and activities using appropriate gender lens and mainstreaming instruments. Approaches such as gender analysis, gender audit and gender budgeting using gender disaggregated data in M+E and reporting on all climate change responses should be enhanced[2].

Moreover, the financing of women led and targeted climate change and just energy transition initiatives has been low and unsustainable. While the Clean Cooking Initiative in Tanzania is commendable, the downside of this is that it is largely donor funded, private sector driven and thus its long-term funding and wide scale affordability is largely unguaranteed.

Tanzania has set a target of achieving 50% renewable energy generation by 2030, however, budgetary allocations to support climate change mitigation and adaptation have generally focused on sectors like agriculture, water, and forestry, which are highly vulnerable to climate change. However, overall allocation specifically targeting climate change mitigation and adaptation remains relatively low compared to the needs identified in national strategies. According to a Research Report by REPOA, climate financing sources do not meet the expectations as by 2020 a total of TZS 24.7 trillion equivalent to USD 10.7 million were mobilized during FYDP II, which was only 3.6% of the targeted amount[3]

According to Africa Enterprise Foundation (AEF), the Tanzania Clean Cooking Project (TCCP) is a US$3.75 million three-year project, funded largely by the Government of Sweden, that aims to catalyse the clean cooking sector through enhanced private sector participation. The project will provide matching grant financing and technical assistance to small and growing businesses working in clean cooking. The financing aims to de-risk companies to venture into underserved markets and enhance the affordability and accessibility of clean cooking solutions for at least 60,000 beneficiary households.

By requiring or expecting the poor women in rural areas to switch from free firewood and biomass to paid cooking gas (LPG), the initiative places poor women directly into the market place driven energy cash economy which may be expensive and unsustainable to afford. According to the Ministry of energy, so far only 50% of rural women enrolled on to this initiative have continued[4]. For this initiative to succeed, the issues of reduced cost, increased household incomes and sustainability of supply must be addressed.

Generally, essential milestones need to be covered. These include lack of a comprehensive policy  coordination fragmentation, limited institutional capacity, inadequate or duplicative legal frameworks, weak enforcement mechanisms, and insufficient participation of women in designing, championing and leading initiatives that affect their welfare (Nachmany, 2018).

Why engaging women in Climate Change and Energy Matters:

Engaging women in climate change and energy transition decision-making processes is crucial and pays dividends. According to the UN and documented evidence in development, empowering women bears lasting solutions and can a be a multiplier factor in addressing climate change and achieving sustainable development.

Women make up nearly half of the agricultural labor force in developing countries. When provided with the same access to resources as men, women can increase their agricultural yields by 20 to 30 percent. This boost in productivity not only improves total agricultural output by 2.5 to 4 percent, but it can also help reduce world hunger by 12 to 17 percent.

Empowering women especially in rural areas in agriculture can also have a positive impact on climate adaptation. By providing appropriate technology and resources, we can promote more sustainable farming and conservation practices. And by reducing poverty, we can help individuals better adapt to the effects of climate change.

When it comes to building climate resilience in communities, involving women is crucial. In fact, the UN reports that communities are more successful in resilience and capacity-building strategies when women are part of the planning process. Moreover, by improving access to clean energy, women death due to toxic fumes and related disease can be reduced by half.

It is therefore essential that climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies adequately take into account women considerations, addressing gender inequality, reduced harms from climate injustice[5] and effective participation at the national and global climate change discussion tables.

Recommendations for engaging women in climate change and energy matters:

 While Tanzania has made some progress in a climate change, significant policy and governance gaps still exist. Addressing these gaps requires strengthening institutional capacity, enhancing coordination, improving legal frameworks, promoting transparency, and ensuring women inclusive decision-making processes backed with sustainable funding. An organ similar to a National Women in Climate Change and Energy Council, could an ideal vehicle for channeling and championing women participation in climate change and energy transition in Tanzania. Conducting periodic women congresses on Climate Change, Gender and Energy Transition would propel this even further.

 Some of our identified and recommended approaches include:

  1. Develop a comprehensive Climate Change Policy for Tanzania to address some of the gaps that exist.  Currently, Tanzania doesn’t have and are fragmented in different  documents such as the National Adaptations Programs, National Climate Response Strategy and the National Strategy for Mainstreaming Gender in Climate Change (NSMGCC). The absence of a comprehensive climate change policy constitutes a huge lacuna that Tanzania must bridge
  2. Creating and convening safe spaces for women dialogue on climate change and energy transition matters is fundamentally urgent. This includes establishing women’s groups, organizing consultations, and ensuring women’s representation in policy dialogues and negotiations at all levels. Women Must talk. It is for this reason that we (GEPC) advocate for a hosting periodic Women National Pan African Congresses on Climate Change and Energy Transition and a Women COP on Climate Change and Energy Transition in the nearest future.
  3. Support and Facilitate Women’s inspired and led participation in Climate Change and Energy transition: This includes encouraging and supporting women’s leadership in climate change and energy sectors by providing mentorship, networking opportunities, and skills development at all levels. In this regard we (GEPC) advocate for establishment of a National Women in Climate Change and Energy Council as a vehicle to advance women concerns and interests in climate change and energy matters. Existing studies support that women’s representation in decision-making bodies, advisory committees, and project management teams is crucial for better resource governance, conservation outcomes, and disaster readiness (Brixi et al., 2022). Moreover, effective participation of women will reduce climate and energy related vulnerability and death by thousands
  4. Promoting Education and Training: Investing in education and training programs to enhance women’s capacity in climate change adaptation, renewable energy technologies, sustainable agriculture, and natural resource management. We advocate for tailored vocational training on climate adaptation and energy transition solutions, workshops on business and enterprise development, and awareness campaigns as essential skills and tools measures to meet women’s specific needs and interests.
  5. Provide access to resources: Government and Private sector must ensure equal and cheap access for women to financial resources, technology, land, and other productive assets necessary for their participation in climate change and energy initiatives. This involves providing dedicated financing lines, affordable microfinance services, facilitating access to clean energy technologies, and promoting resource rights for women. The gaps and vulnerability scores as per current reports (Tanzania Demographic Health Survey and Malaria Indicator Survey TDHS-MIS, 2022) are significantly large and have remained tilted against women.
  6. Promoting and implementation of Gender-Responsive Policies: We advocate for going beyond the integration of gender considerations into climate change and energy policies, programs, and projects. Conducting gender analyses, integration of gender concerns as a distinct feature into project design and implementation are first steps monitoring, evaluating and learning from the gender impacts of interventions and renewed action is essential.
  7. Raising Awareness and Changing Attitudes: Conducting awareness-raising campaigns to emphasize the importance of women’s participation in climate change and energy matters. Challenging stereotypes and social norms that restrict women’s involvement in decision-making processes or limit their access to resources and opportunities is crucial.
  8. Promote Women in Green Entrepreneurship: Encouraging and supporting women entrepreneurs to develop and scale up businesses that promote climate resilience and sustainable energy solutions. Private sector initiatives such as Jasiri Green Bonds is a positive initiative, however the simplicity, affordability and onboarding of more women has to be improved and scaled up purposefully for women. Additionally cheap training, technical assistance, and access to markets must be undertaken to help women establish and grow their enterprises in sectors such as renewable energy, eco-tourism, and sustainable agriculture.
  9. Provide a collaborative and facilitative environment for Civil Society and NGOs to engage: Government, Private Sector and Donors must support, partner and collaborate with Civil Society and NGOs that work on Women and Climate Change and Energy Transition. Over the last years, the civic space and financing for climate rights-based organisations has been constrained.  Research suggests that leveraging on their expertise and networks as allies can enhance women’s engagement in climate change and energy initiatives can deliver more dividends (Nachmany, 2018).

By implementing these strategies and fostering collaboration across sectors, Tanzania can empower women to play a significant role in addressing climate change and driving sustainable energy transitions.

Conclusion:

This policy brief underscores the critical importance of addressing gender disparities in climate change and energy transitions in Tanzania. Both part 1 and 2 of the brief highlights the effects that climate change and energy injustice have on women and the inherent policy, governance and financing gaps that exist in Tanzania’s climate and energy transition space. The brief concludes that  despite the efforts, women are still at the periphery and their active engagement in the current climate change and energy discussions and decision-making processes is imperative to ensure climate change and energy transition interventions are inclusive and effective. By prioritizing gender equality and women’s empowerment, Tanzania can enhance resilience to climate change, address energy injustice, reduce climate change vulnerability and advance sustainable development.

References:

Agora Portal for Parliamentary Development. (n.d.). Climate change, energy, and gender. Retrieved from https://agora-parl.org/resources/aoe/climate-change-energy-and-gender

Brixi, H., Das, J., & Doss, C. (2022). People and planet together: Why women and girls are at the heart of climate action [Blog post]. World Bank Blogs. Retrieved from https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/climatechange/people-and-planet-together-why-women-and-girls-are-heart-climate-action

Energia. (2020). Gender and energy country brief for Tanzania. Retrieved from https://www.energia.org/assets/2021/02/Country-brief-Tanzania_Nov2020_final

Fadhila H.A Khatibu, Razack B. Lokina (2023). A Review of Tanzania’s Fiscal Regime for Climate Action. https://www.repoa.or.tz/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/A-Review-of-Tanzanias-Fiscal-Regime-for-Climate-Action.pdf

Nachmany, M. (2018). Climate change governance in Tanzania: Summary policy brief. Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London School of Economics and Political Science.

National Climate Change Strategy (2021-2026). Tanzania Government.

National Strategy for Mainstreaming Gender in Climate Change (2023). Tanzania Government.

Tanzania Demographic Health Survey and Malaria Indicator Survey TDHS-MIS. (2022).

UN Women. (n.d.). Fact Sheet: Women, gender equality and climate change. United Nations. Retrieved from https://www.un.org/womenwatch/

UNDP Tanzania. (n.d.). Bridging the gender gap: Empowering women in the agricultural sector. Retrieved from https://www.undp.org/tanzania/news/bridging-gender-gap-empowering-women-agricultural-sector

UNECA. (n.d.). Support for land use planning sees over 2000 women farmers in Tanzania become landowners. Retrieved from https://africa.unwomen.org/en/stories/news/2023/02/support-for-land-use-planning-sees-over-2000-women-farmers-in-tanzania-become-land-owners

[1] https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/news/national/roadmap-for-clean-cooking-energy-to-target-rural-masses-3921536

[2] National Climate Change Strategy, 2021-2026

[3] https://www.repoa.or.tz/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/A-Review-of-Tanzanias-Fiscal-Regime-for-Climate-Action.pdf

[4] https://www.thecitizen.co.tz/tanzania/news/national/roadmap-for-clean-cooking-energy-to-target-rural-masses-3921536

[5] https://genderclimatetracker.org/sites/default/files/Resources/Gender-and-the-climate-change-agenda-212.pdf

Analysis of Climate Change and Energy Transition impacts on women in Tanzania: Policy and governance gaps

Climate Change and Energy Transition are pertinent issues in contemporary global development challenge facing the world yet women are still at the periphery. Moreover there is a varied difference in how poor rural versus urban women experience the climate change and energy transition effects. The situation in Tanzania is not different.

Author(s):  Gloria Shechambo, Researcher and Moses Kulaba,  Governance and Economic Policy Centre

Climate Change and Energy Transition are pertinent issues in contemporary global development challenge facing the world yet its impacts on women and their practical engagement have remained nuanced and camouflaged in of volumes of endless winding texts and UN resolutions, with less significant impact. Women are still at the periphery and there is a varied difference in how poor rural versus urban women experience the climate change and energy transition effects .  Despite attempts, the situation in Tanzania is not different and warrants immediate consistent and purposefully intentional attention.

The world is one place yet  climate change and energy transition problems facing women are distinct because of their economic and social vulnerabilities and traditional care giving roles compared to men. 

Because women face a higher level of economic and social vulnerability compared to men, the meta question in climate change and energy transition must not remain how can the world and particularly developing countries be better positioned to be more adaptive, resilient and responsive but rather why is it a concern for women in particular? How and why should poor women be at the center of these discussions? In Tanzania this is even more critical given that women are disproportionately more affected than any other group.

 In fact, and justifiably, the demand for more women engagement in climate change and energy transition is not a feminist ask but a development imperative that must be addressed. 

This policy brief examines the intersection of gender, climate change, and energy transitions in Tanzania, emphasizing the importance of engaging women in bridging the disparities to inclusive actions and successful interventions for sustainable development. The brief highlights the disproportionate impact of climate change and energy-related disasters on women due to their caregiving roles and limited access to resources and efforts in place.

 By prioritizing gender justice and equality, Tanzania can strengthen resilience to climate change, reduce energy injustice gap and advance sustainable development.

Nexus of Climate Change and Energy injustice on women in Tanzania

Women often play key roles in food production and household food security yet climate change and energy significantly impact agriculture and productive sectors in Tanzania. Women, who constitute a substantial portion of the agricultural labor force, face heightened vulnerability to climate-related disasters and energy insecurity due to various social, economic, and cultural factors[1].

UNDP reports that more women than men (67 percent of the country’s total female labor force versus 64 percent of the male labor force) are engaged in agriculture.

Tanzania’s recent Agricultural Transformation Strategy known as Agenda 10/30 emphasizes the role of women in facilitating the sector’s growth to 10% by 2030[2] and thus places women in direct confrontation with the effects of climate change on agriculture and food production.

Additionally, in terms of energy; data from Gender and Energy country briefs for Tanzania indicates that by 2020 only 8.1% of households used clean energy sources and in 92% of households it is merely women who are vested with the responsibility to cook and collect firewood for use and thus affecting their health and time productivity (Energia, 2020). There are wider gender disparities when it comes to the impact of climate change and energy-related disasters in terms of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation spread across a short and longer term.

Women often face disproportionate health impacts from climate change due to their roles as caregivers and their biological vulnerability. For example, during natural disasters or heatwaves, pregnant women and those with reproductive health issues may face increased risks. 

Both rural and urban women face systemic gender inequalities that limit their access to resources, education, and decision-making processes, exacerbating their vulnerability to climate change impacts. However, it is undeniably also true that poor rural women are more disproportionately affected due to their higher dependency on natural resources, their heavier involvement in agriculture, lower access to clean energy and more limited access to technology and information.  

On the other hand, urban women face more exposure to heat waves and poor air quality; they are more exposed to energy poverty particularly in low-income households; urban women are also more prone to working in sectors that are particularly affected by climate change or the energy transition, such as retail, hospitality, or informal sectors; urban women are also more likely to face affordability reliability and quality issues related to energy services.

Climate change-induced changes such as droughts or floods can impact agricultural productivity, potentially leading to food shortages and malnutrition, which disproportionately affect women and children. Climate-Induced changes can lead to increased burden for women such as traveling longer distances to obtain water for household use in turn causing higher chances of GBV (National Climate Change Strategy, 2021-2026).

Additionally, poor women’s ability to adapt and mitigate climate and energy-related impacts is limited by their limited access to resources such as land (33% women vs 47% men sole land ownership and 25% women vs 30% men joint land ownership)[3] 

Other crucial reasons that place women’s involvement in these discussions high on the agenda include the income disparities between women and men when it comes to dealing with the aftermath of disasters. According to UN Economic Commission for Africa, Women in Tanzania are one and a half times more likely to be unemployed at 12.3 per cent than men at 8.2 per cent with implications for household income disparities[4] (UNECA, n.d.)

Women’s disproportionate position in disastrous situations is fueled by the different gender roles played by women and men, for example in caregiving during and after disasters, collection of household water, and managing household sanitation; underrepresentation of women in decision-making processes related to climate change mitigation and adaptation. Women especially in rural areas experience lower access to information about adaptation technologies, cropping patterns, and weather events.

The net costs of climate change on women are staggeringly high yet the current climate change and energy transition debates and response measures have not adequately augmented, rallied and addressed the significant concerns facing women.

According to UN reports, particularly in developing countries, the consequences of climate change can increase the burden for rural women and girls, for example, causing them to travel further to obtain daily supplies such as firewood and biomass, leaving less time for paid work and potentially exposing them to greater risk to their personal safety[5] Climate change has exacerbated gender violence and injustice against women and drop out of young girls from school in search for water, food water and energy.

Moreover, the constant use of biomass as source of energy for cooking increases exposure to toxic fumes leading to high respiratory, cardiovascular diseases, cancers and death. According to medical reports, Cardiovascular and respiratory diseases were the top two leading cause of women’s deaths in Tanzania with the occurrence of cancerous cardiogenic diseases being more likely in urban women and respiratory diseases being more likely in rural areas due to indoor air pollution. These two accounted for 92.84 and 82.58% of all deaths per 100,000 in 2019, overtaking Maternal and Neonatal disorders. [6]

Pulmonary experts at Muhimbili National Hospital estimate that about 33,000 people, mostly women, die annually in Tanzania due to the use of charcoal, firewood and biomass for cooking[7]

Clearly there is a nexus between climate change, energy and deaths amongst women and that is why it is very important to engage women and consider the gender dimensions of climate change and energy injustice on women from planning interventions to implementation such that interventions address inequalities, are efficient, effective and sustainable.

Existing frameworks or mechanisms for women in climate change and energy in Tanzania

 Tanzania has developed various policies and strategies to address gender issues within climate and energy contexts. Key instruments include among others  the National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS) 2021-2026 and the National Strategy for Mainstreaming Gender in Climate Change (NSMGCC) 2023 with the overall objective of ensuring that gender considerations are mainstreamed into national policies, programs and strategies related to climate change. The government is a signatory to a number of Multilateral Instruments on climate change.

In 2015 the government passed the Tanzania Sustainable Energy for All (SE4All) Action Agenda (2015). The goal of this agenda is to ensure access to modern energy, preferably clean energy; improvement of energy efficiency; and increase share of renewable energy in the global mix. The Government of Tanzania fully embraces the SE4ALL objectives. This includes recognising the fact that access to modern energy services is a necessary precondition for achieving development goals that extend far beyond the energy sector, such as poverty eradication, access to clean water, improved public health and education, women’s empowerment and increase food production. Further, the government passed the LPG promotion plan and the National Gas Utilisation Master Plan, aimed at increasing the use of gas as a clean fuel.

The National Guidelines for Mainstreaming Gender into Climate Change Adaptation-related Policies, Plans, Strategies, Programmes and Budgets (2014) Tanzania has mainstreamed gender into a number of national development frameworks and ratified international and regional gender instruments. Some of these frameworks include the National Development Vision 2025. Moreover, in 2022, the government convened the first national clean cooking conference and in 2024 launched The National Clean Energy Cooking Strategy 2024-2034.   The strategy aims at scale up the use of clean cooking gas as a source of energy.

According to Dr Dotto Biteko, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Energy/ the Ministry of Energy, the government expects that by the year 2034, 80% of Tanzanians will be using clean energy to cook and therefore reducing on the amount of carbon emissions and exposure to toxic fumes by women[8].

Currently, the government is implementing a project funded by the Government of Sweden, to support market-based approaches for clean cooking in the United Republic of Tanzania. This intended to scale up use of  clean cooking gas amongst rural households.

To back this up, during the COP28 in the UAE, President Suluhu Samia Hassan launched the Africa Women Clean Cooking Support Program (AWCCSP. This program encompasses promotion of use of gas cooking stoves and gas cylinders in Africa and Tanzania in particular by fostering energy and policies changes to cater for the earth’s prosperity, will cut carbon emission significantly.  President Samia acknowledges that women and girls bear the brunt of lack of sustainable energy cooking solutions and clean cooking energy is about mitigation, women empowerment and welfare.

Despite these efforts, there are significant policy and governance gaps that exist. In our second part of this brief we will bring you the policy and governance gaps and how government can address them. Keep on the look out and visiting this site for the next part of this brief.

Solar and Energy Transition: Good policy intentions but less progress: Assessing Tanzania and EAC’s Utility scale solar energy potential and policy gaps to fix

Governments are struggling with little success to attract and retain utility scale solar projects and many have died in their nascent stages. Yet utility scale solar projects could be a significant contributor to resolving the regions power shortages and increased energy access by sizeable proportions. So, what is holding back utility scale solar projects and how can governments maneuver to attract and retain more investors. 

By Moses Kulaba, Governance and Economic Policy Centre

@energypolicy @cleanenergy @solarafrica @energytransition

Multiple studies have concluded that the Eastern Africa region has the highest technical potential for solar power technologies, with estimates of 175 PWh and 220 PWh annually for Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) and Photovoltaics (PV) respectively. African countries with the highest CSP and PV potentials are Algeria, Egypt, Namibia, South Africa, Sudan, and Tanzania.  The annual technical solar power potential in Tanzania is estimated to be 31,482 TWh for CSP technology and 38,804 TWh for PV technology. Despite this potential, Tanzania and EAC lags behind its peers such as South Africa, Algeria and Egypt. Besides the technical aspects as earlier discussed, the policy terrain in East Africa has been largely zig zag and therefore not coherent enough to support investment.

In this second part of our analytical series on solar as a clean energy source, we attempt to shade some light on the policy terrain in Tanzania and East Africa generally and how this is contributing towards holding back large-scale investment and utility scale solar penetration.

Policy and investment terrain

Generally, the policy and investment landscape in East Africa has been evolving at a snail pace. Both Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda have renewable energy policies in place however these are not backed up by adequate promotion, implementation and funding. The regulatory terrain has also been discordant.  For the region to benefit, the policy and investment trajectory will have to align and move faster, catching up with the global trends and the drive to clean energy.

Tanzania’s policy terrain.

The government passed a National Energy Policy (NEP) in 2015 with a commitment to increase the share of renewables in its energy mix. The NEP 2015 seeks to facilitate improvement of investment environment to promote and support private sector participation. The policy further commits to scaling up utilization of renewable energy source by among others introducing a.. feed-in-tariffs for renewable energy technologies and structure power purchase agreements for renewable energy.  

It further commits to facilitate integration of renewable energy technologies in buildings and industrial designs and establish frameworks for renewable energy integration into the national and isolated grids; an Promote sustainable biofuel production and usage.

However, actualization of this has been slow. To date contribution of renewables to Tanzania’s energy mix remains low at 1.2 %. By 2021 Tanzania’s electricity generation came mostly from natural gas (48%), followed by hydro (31%), petrol (18%) with solar and biofuels contributing a mere 1% each. The National energy consumption balance is still dominated with biomas (charcoal and firewood) use at around 85%.

Tanzania government admits that that solar utilization is constrained by high initial costs, poor after sales services, insufficient awareness on its potential and economic benefits offered by solar technologies plus inappropriate credit financing mechanisms.

Previous policies, particularly the 2003 was successful in the establishment and operationalization of Energy and Water utilities regulatory authorities, the Rural Energy Agency (REA) and the Rural Energy Fund, However, it fell short of making advancements on the renewable energy, particularly by not creating a designated and operational Renewable Energy Fund. By design it is implied that funding of the renewable sector would come directly from the consolidated Energy Fund. However, with conflicting priorities and government’s focus on increasing energy access to hydro and gas fired electricity, much of the available funding was channeled towards rural electrification.

In 2012 Tanzania was one of the pilot countries selected to prepare the Scaling Up Renewable Energy Program (SREP). The chief objective of this plan was to transform the energy sector of Tanzania from one that is more dependent on fossil fuels to one that is more diversified with a greater share of renewable sources contributing to the energy mix through catalyzing the large–scale development of renewable energy.

The SREP–Tanzania Investment Plan was prepared by the Government of Tanzania, through a National Task Force led by the Ministry of Energy and Minerals (MEM) with support from the Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs). However much of this plan is yet to fully takeoff and its translation into actual deliverables yet to materialise

Cognizant of the significant gaps that exist, in 2023 the Minister of energy at time, Hon January Makamba revealed that the government was developing a new Renewable Energy Policy to further enhance investments in renewable energy. This policy would capitalize on the substantial financial resources, capital markets, and advancements in new technologies dedicated to renewable energy globally. He also announced ongoing efforts to identify areas with renewable energy resources and prioritize native investments in wind and solar projects. The government would provide support in this regard and establish guidelines for project implementation.

In 2023 Tanzania entered into an agreement to construct the Country’s first-ever solar photovoltaic power station to feed into the national electricity grid. According to the Ministry of Energy, the project is part of a larger initiative of installing 150 MW of solar energy in the Kishapu district of the Shinyanga region. The first phase of the project to be constructed by Sinohydro Corporation from China was estimated at TZS 109 billion and was scheduled for completion before end of 2024.

According to the Minister, the implementation of the solar project reflected the government’s commitment to establishing a diverse mix of electricity sources in the national grid, incorporating water, gas, wind, and solar power. This approach aims to ensure a continuous supply of electricity, even in the event of a failure in one source.

There are also several large-scale solar power projects under development, including the 30 MW Singida project and the 50 MW Nyumba ya Mungu project. In addition to government efforts, there are also private companies and organizations working to develop renewable energy projects in Tanzania.

Similarly, Zanzibar, the semi-autonomous Island of Tanzania, also signed in 2023 an agreement with a Mauritius-based Generation Capital Ltd and Tanzania’s Taifa Energy to build its first large-scale 30MW solar PV power plant, as it seeks to become energy independent. The plant will cost $140 million. The Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) between the state-owned Zanzibar Electricity Corporation (Zeco) and the two companies to develop the 180 megawatts plant will be implemented in phases, according to Zanzibar’s Ministry of Energy and Minerals.

Kenya’s solar terrain

Garissa Solar Farm

So far, Kenya is leading in large solar projects.  There are at least 10 large solar farms in Kenya. The Garisa solar farm, is the largest in East and Central Africa, with 55 MW generation capacity. The solar farm sits on85 hectares (210 acres) and consists of 206,272 265Wp solar panels and 1,172 42kW inverters owned and operated by Rural Electrification and Renewable Energy Corporation. Others already operational or proposed include; Malindi Solar (52MW), Alten Kasses (52 MW), Kopere Solar Project (50MW), Eldosol Solar Project (48MW), Radiant (50MW), Rumuruti (40 MW), Nakuru Solar project (40MW), Witu (40MW) and Makindu (40MW).

Kenya has buttressed its renewable energy credentials with a new Energy Transition and Investment Plan (ETIP) launched in 2023. The ETIP spells out Kenya’s road map to delivering a 100% clean energy driven economy by 2050. The country is however yet to figure out how it will fund this ambitious plan. Over the past recent years Kenya has been facing significant budgetary constraints affecting funding of its major national development plans. Even when the government has committed to achieving 100% clean energy by 2030, it bets heavily on funding from external donors. With the recent trend in aid inflows and if they remain unchanged in the short and medium term, it will be a tall order Kenya to meet this target.

Uganda’s solar uptake

Uganda has been slowly catching up with its peers. Uganda’s policy commits to make modern renewable energy a substantial part of the national energy consumption. To increase the use of modern renewable energy, from the current 4% to 61% of the total energy consumption by the year 2017[i].

The policy terrain has been zigzagging and investment in renewables is still low but the government has blended its focus on hydropower generation with small investments in solar projects as back up for its hydropower. There was a big growth in 2021, reaching 92 MW, followed by a significant increase of around 6.9 MW, reaching a total of 98.9 MW Uganda’s installed solar energy capacity in 2022.

Some of the projects contributing to this growth include Kabulasoke Solar PV Park is a 20MW solar PV power project, located in Central, Uganda, Bufulubi solar project in Tororo and Access solar plants in Soroti.  New pipeline projects include the Amea West Nile Solar PV Park, a ground-mounted solar project, whose construction was expected to commence from 2024 and subsequently enter into commercial operation in 2025. The power generated from the project will be sold to Uganda Electricity Transmission under a power purchase agreement. 

This however falls short of achieving the targets as stipulated in Uganda’s Renewable Energy policy. Uganda’s renewable energy policy commits to establish and maintain a responsive legislative, appropriate financing and fiscal policy framework for investments in renewable energy technologies. It mentions forms of financing such as strengthening the Credit Support Facility and Smart Subsidies which are intended to scale up investments in renewable energy and rural electrification.

Moreover, a special financial mechanism, a credit support facility known as the Uganda Energy Capitalisation Trust, was instituted to help realise the policy but this expired in 2012 and had never been renewed[ii]. Uganda lags in meeting its policy targets as only 10 solar projects had been completed by 2022[iii].

What is the current market and investment size?

According to global energy reports, there is a substantive market size of solar photovoltaic (PV) in East Africa and Africa generally. The Middle East & Africa solar photovoltaic (PV) market size was valued at USD 5.00 billion in 2022. The market was projected to grow from USD 6.93 billion in 2023 to USD 37.71 billion by 2030, exhibiting a cumulative Average growth rate (CAGR) of 27.4% during the forecast period.

Despite its immense solar power potential, East Africa and Africa generally continues to lag behind other continents when it comes to building up utility scale grid and off-grid solar capacity, in part due to a stagnant policy regime, overlapping institutional roles, limited research, technical capacity and lack of appropriate financing facilities for investment.  Some proposed projects have failed to take off.  As a consequence, the total investment share of utility scale projects into East Africa remains comparable low.  

So, what can EAC governments do to make utility scale solar markets attractive?

Recommendations

# Governments must make policy switches from paper to aggressive attracting of investment into the solar PV East African markets. The policies may exist but the implementation gap is too big. Policy interventions and a national course-correction is urgently needed to effectively overcome structural barriers and create local value in the emerging solar market many of which is still left behind in this progress.

# Decentralization of energy generation away from vertically integrated power monopolies such as TANESCO and Kenya power could be a game changer.  De regulation and introduction of net metering by independent Solar PV power producers to directly generate and sell to customers could improve profitability of solar projects and attract new investments.

# Financing institutions must scale up project financing of renewable energy projects.  Solar projects are still expensive and funding is difficult to come by. Kenya’s Garisa solar project required an investment of KSh13. 7 billion ($135.7 million) and was funded by the Exim Bank of China. Other projects have required substantive investment with funds generated from private developers and energy venture capitalists. The existing financial institutions are yet to master tailing project financing to utility scale solar projects.

# Addressing land rights and underlying injustices. Large solar farms require large tracts of land and these can be a source of land grabbing, land deprivation and injustice, generating conflicts and endless litigation between potential investors and the communities. The renewable policies and investments have to sit well with land rights, guaranteeing free prior informed consent, fair compensation and equity,

# Socio-economic: Identifying and prioritizing suitable areas for building large-scale solar power plants is a complex problem. In contrast with the simplistic view, identifying appropriate geographical areas for solar power installation is not only linked with the amount of received solar radiation, but there are many other technical, economic, environmental, and social factors that should be considered like: alternative land uses, topographical characteristics of the land, conserving protected areas, potential environmental impacts, water availability, potential urban expansion, proximity to demand centers, roads proximity, and potential for grid connectivity.

# Solar technology firms must address intermittence and storage of renewable energy. Solar power is generally reliant on the availability of sunshine. Depending on the weather and hours of the day and night. Unfortunately, the technology has not advanced far enough and made cheaply available to East for storage of solar power. For solar power users the days are hot and the nights are cold.

# Government leaders must have a unified political will to support renewables as part of the master energy mix and regional energy power pool. So far there is a divided political opinion on what solar power can do in helping the governments to meet their national energy demands. While Kenya is a front runner, other countries are still focused on hydro and gas. The future of distributed solar therefore depends largely on good political will driving favorable polices and changing mindset to embrace solar power as a new source of energy. This could be reflected in new generation policy drivers such as requirement for solar considerations in building designs and integrated power systems.

[i] Renewable Policy for Uganda; https://s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/s3.sourceafrica.net/documents/118159/Uganda-Renewable-Energy-Policy.pdf

 

[ii]

[iii]

Energy Transition: Understanding basics of solar energy and why it has failed to peak in East Africa

 

East Africa has abundant hot sunshine around the year yet harvesting this for large utility scale electricity has remained small. Partially, it is because the technical aspects of solar power make it a complicated energy source system than it may appear. Understanding is important in helping to shape policy and accelerated solarisation.

By Moses Kulaba, Governance and Economic Policy Center

@energy transition @solarenergy @solarafrica  @energypolicy

Early in March 2024 a heat wave hit South Sudan with temperatures soaring between 41 to 47 degrees Celsius. The temperature and its accompanying heat were too high that the South Sudanese Ministry of Health closed schools, advised the public to stay indoors and drink a lot of water to remain hydrated.  

The images of South Sudanese baking eggs under the open sun on the streets of Juba went viral rekindling the debate on the potential of harnessing solar energy to generate power. In a two part articles and policy briefs we discuss the technical aspects of solar power and the policy terrain undermining the utility scale investment levels in East Africa.

East Africa has abundant hot sunshine around the year yet harvesting this for large utility scale electricity has remained small. With about 50 MW generation, the Garissa Solar Plant is the largest grid connected solar power plant in East & Central Africa.

So far Egypt has the largest solar park in Africa. It spans 37 kilometers and has a total generation capacity of around 1.8 gigawatts, which is enough to power hundreds of thousands of homes and towns. The question is therefore asked why have we not seen large uptake of utility scale solar projects in East Africa? The answer zeros down to technology, political will and mindset.

The technical aspects of solar power make it a complicated energy source system than it may appear.  The mechanics behind solar power and how it can be harnessed with impact on a larger scale can/ is more complicated than it may appear. Harnessing solar for electricity generation requires technical expertise, political will and investment.  This brief dissects the basics of solar power and its potentials as a Peaker clean power source for East Africa.

What is solar power

According to scientists, solar energy comes from nuclear reactions which happen deep in the sun’s core. The sun is a giant hot glowing mass of hydrogen and helium at the center of our solar system.

Every second the sun burns and loses about 4 million tons of mass in a continuous complex nuclear fusion reaction. That mass when converted into energy is what drives solar energy outwards from the sun radiating into the solar system. Solar energy radiates from the sun as electromagnetic waves of different frequencies and energies which can be trapped and transformed into solar electricity.

The solar panel collects energy from the sun, this energy goes into an inverter, which is a key component of a solar PV installation. The inverter converts the steady electric power coming into the inverter into alternating current (AC) which is the predominant form of power used in an electric grid or connected to a service panel at a house.

Role of solar in global power systems

Globally the role of solar is still small although it has been increasing over the years. Solar power contributes about 10% of all renewable energy and 1% of total world energy. Bioenergy, hydro power and wind contribute the bulk (90%) of the total renewable energy of about 900 Mtoe, accounting for 10.5% of total energy use. Solar photovoltaic and solar thermal provide 5% each of renewable energy. These statistics are growing as the world constantly moves towards clean energy solutions by 2030.

According to Renewable Capacity Statistics 2024 report released by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) shows that 2023 set a new record in renewables deployment in the power sector by reaching a total capacity of 3, 870 Gigawatts (GW) globally.

With solar energy continuing to dominate renewable generation capacity expansion, the report underscores that the growth disparity did not only affect geographical distribution but also the deployment of technologies. Solar accounted for 73% of the renewable growth last year, reaching 1 419 GW, followed by wind power with 24% share of renewable expansion.

Renewables accounted for 86% of capacity additions; however, this growth is unevenly distributed across the world, indicating a trend far from the tripling renewable power target by 2030.

The 473 GW of renewables expansion was led once again by Asia with a 69% share (326 GW). This growth was driven by China, whose capacity increased by 63%, reaching 297.6 GW. This reflects a glaring gap with other regions, leaving a vast majority of developing countries behind, despite massive economic and development needs. Even though Africa has seen some growth, it paled in comparison with an increase of 4.6%, reaching a total capacity of 62 GW. Clearly, the room for solar as a new form of energy is still available.

Determinants of solar power and characteristics

The amount of solar received on the earth is determined by a number of factors such as what is technically called irradiance and irradiation. Solar Irradiance is the term generally used to measure the solar flax at a given location and is usually quoted in units of Watts per square meter. Solar Irradiation is used to measure the long-term average solar flax at a given location and usually quoted in Kwh per square meter.

This can further be categorized as Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI) which is the solar power measured at the surface of the earth at a given location with a surface element perpendicular to the sun’s rays. Diffused Horizontal Irradiance/irradiation (DHI) measuring the radiation at the earth’s surface from light scattered by the atmosphere and Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI) which is the total irradiance from the sun measured at the earth surface on a horizontal plane.

Africa is often considered and referred to as the “Sun continent” or the continent where the Sun’s influence is the greatest.  According to the “World Sunshine Map”, Africa receives many more hours of bright sunshine during the course of the year than any other continent of the Earth and many of the sunniest places on the planet lie here.  This has also been. recognized by the international council of science who confidently pointed out that Africa has the best resources when it comes to solar power availability. This resource is usually measured in form of solar irradiance.

The amount of solar irradiation and irradiance are further determined by factors such as

  1. Geographical location and proximity to the equator, whereby close proximity to the equator provides short distance to the sun with the sun rays having a direct strike to the earth’s surface and therefore higher temperatures optimal for solar energy.
  2. Elevation above, where by the higher you go, the more exposure to sunlight and amount of sunshine received
  3. Seasonality of weather, cloud cover and precipitation, which determine how much sunshine is recorded at a given location.

Strategically located along the equator, East Africa receives between 500-3500 hours of sunshine per year, therefore making it a perfect site for harnessing solar energy throughout the year.

Trends of Solar installations and future of utility scale solar power

Solar Photo Voltaic (PV) installations have been increasing beyond expected projections, however the rate is still too low to pace the required demand.  The costs of solar PVs have been dropping constantly by around 20% for every doubling of cumulative shipped volume. At the present rates the costs could have about every 10 years.

Solar panels are made from semi-conductor materials which conduct photovoltaic cells through a complex process of doping and bonding as energy moves through different bands to release electricity. This harnessed for domestic use or as Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) for Utility scale electricity generation. According to statistics CSP is expected to grow by nearly 90% over the next 5 years and nearly tripling the rate of the past 5 years.

Solar and Socio-economic effects

Utility scale solar projects require large tracts of land to set up. For example, the 1,547 MW China Great Wall Project in the Tegger Desert occupies 1200 square kilometers of land with an installed solar field of 43 square kilometers. The US Star 1 and 2 project sits on a large piece of land with1,720,000 panels field generating 1,664 MW enough to power 255,000 homes.  This requirement for size to pave way for their establishments, can lead to land grabbing, mass evictions and displacements escalating socio-economic conflicts between the local residents and the investors. East Africa is already awash with land-based conflicts, displacement from ancestral lands and unfair compensation of victims.

Solar and the environment

Because of its low penetration, the environmental impacts of solar energy are still minimal.  These could increase as the uptake expands however the following can be noted

  • Land use and eco system. Solar farms at utility scale electricity generation requires large areas of land and this can cause disturbances to the land vegetation and sensitive eco-systems. The thousands of solar panels spread across hundreds of square meters can be an eye sore and environmental nuisance
  • Impacts on birds (avian): Solar can have adverse impacts to birds through distraction inflight eye sights and incineration. According to a study by the USGs estimated that its Ivanpah CSP plant in Nevada was incinerating about 6000 birds per year. Globally it was estimated that between 40,000 to 140,000 birds died due to large utility scale solar projects.
  • Toxic materials used; Solar panels are produced using toxic materials such as silicon which reacts and decomposes to produce tetrachloride, a toxic substance must be well disposed as an industrial waste.

Generally, solar is not carbon free based on a 30-year life cycle analysis but has a very low carbon foot print. This carbon foot print could increase as solar penetration expands matching the global drive towards a clean energy future. However, for now it remains one of cleanest source of energy.

Please read our next article on Tanzania and EAC’s potential and the policy terrain and regulation

Oil and Energy Transition: Why Sudan conflict provides new hope for EACOP

The Sudan conflict is a catastrophe that must be stopped but its unintended consequences provide new optimism for the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP).

By Moses Kulaba, Governance and Economic Policy Center

With the constant fighting and insecurity along the pipeline and its pumping stations, the South Sudanese government is now open to exploring new opportunities via EACOP to guarantee its future oil exports.

On March 16th the government of Sudan admitted that it cannot guarantee the smooth export of oil from South Sudan, as a year of war has made it difficult to maintain or even protect the pipeline to Port Sudan.

In a letter to major oil companies involved in the oil production and export, Sudan’s Minister of Energy and Petroleum Dr Mohieldin Nam Mohamed Said admitted that the war had made it difficult to provide any guarantees for safety.

He acknowledged that the conflict was hampering the flow of oil to Port Sudan, as it took time to repair pipelines ruptured during the fighting. In addition, there was a telecommunications breakdown between the pumping stations (PS4) and PS5 in Sudan, which were shut down in the midst of heavy fighting. The area was an active military zone and access for repairs was not guaranteed.

As a response the South Sudanese government had declared a force majeure, making production and export impossible and thereby revamping suggestions to explore new possible safer routes for South Sudan’s oil.

The war in Sudan added to the challenges South Sudan faces in maximizing its only major resource – oil – to fund a financially constrained government and other operations.  As a consequence of the war, South Sudan’s oil production fell from 160,000 barrels per day in 2022 to 140,000 barrels per day in 2023. This is was more than half of the previous peak of 350,000 barrels per day before civil war broke out in 2013.

Talks to have South Sudan pump its oil south wards had all along been explored and presented as part of Uganda’s grand plan to make the EACOP an East African project by connecting and supplying all the EAC member states with oil and gas.

Under this grand plan and initial drawings, the Oil pipeline would radiate from its nerve center in Hoima with an artery of pipelines running northwards to South Sudan, westwards to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), eastwards to connect Kenya’s oil from Turkana and southwards with an arm extended to Rwanda and long route via Tanzania to Tanga port.

Map showing initially considered alternative EACOP routes

But the progress of this was partly hampered by Uganda’s fall out with the Kenyan route and the existing agreements signed between Khartoum and Juba during the independence talks. Provisions in these required among others a concession that Sudan will retain territorial control of some oil rich territories and that South Sudan would continue exporting its oil via Port Sudan. By doing this, the government in Khartoum would maintain some revenues from the oil sector that had been largely lost with South Sudan’s cessation and independence.

I remember in a private conversation with a friend from Sudan some years ago he confided that during one meeting with   Sudanese youth and young professionals, President Omar Bashir, before his overthrow, had admitted that he was not sure about the economic future of Sudan without South Sudan. He clearly predicted a catastrophic economic meltdown leading to chaos and that was why Sudan had to maintain a grip on South Sudan. The oil pipeline was a win-win infrastructure politically and economically anchoring the two countries as good neighbors.

By Sudan admitting that the safety cannot be guaranteed and reconstruction of the damaged infrastructure will take longer than usual provides South Sudan with a legitimate cause to start exploring new safe routes for its oil.

An oil route from Juba southward would be beneficial to South Sudan, the EACOP but also good for the East African Community as a region. South Sudan derives 90% of its revenues from oil exports and would like to have a constant flow of this oil to sustain its economy. EACOP would guarantee that flow. South Sudan would also have access to other EACOP related infrastructure such as the refinery and international airport for other logistical needs.

An extended pipeline from Hoima northwards to connect with the oil from South Sudan would increase volumes of oil pumped out of EACOP by at least 150,000 to 200,000 barrels per day, increasing EACOP’s profitability and attractiveness to investors.

Moreover, with its oil, South Sudan would become a major regional player with a stronger voice in EAC matters perhaps more than it is today. The pipeline would bring Sudan in the north closer to the EAC, increasing its prospects for joining the EAC and thus facilitating the region’s expansion ambitions.

There could be some differences in the chemical composition and technical aspects of the two oils (Uganda and South Sudan) with perhaps one being waxier than the other but these complexities can be handled through technical re-engineering and design of the oil pipeline.

The EACOP has always been a controversial project with environmental activists and anti-oil crusaders campaigning against its construction.  Environmentalists argued that the world’s longest heated pipeline will have serious environmental impacts and contribute to global warming. The future profitability of the pipeline was also questioned given the global push towards a transition away from fossil-based system and uncertainty about the future of oil as an energy source.

None the less, plans for construction of the pipeline are ongoing.  Land compensations in Uganda and Tanzania was completed. An advance consignment of pipes was delivered and a coating and insulating plant for the pipelines was commissioned and already operational in Tanzania, paving way for the pipeline construction and ground laying to commence before end of 2024.

The conflict in Sudan therefore provides more impetus to the project as it opens a new door for possible access and increased volumes from South Sudan’s oil and taping into already existing markets can be guaranteed.

The future of oil as a dominant fuel in the global energy system is a controversial subject and a debate exists whether it makes sense to construct new oil pipelines and infrastructure.  

However, the crisis and the significance of oil in driving South Sudan’s economy comes at a time when there are all indications that major global super powers such as the United States and United Kingdom are backtracking on their commitments to end and move away from fossil or oil as source of energy.

Despite the announcements made at the COP27 and 28, in his maiden speech to Parliament, King Charles in November 2023 announced that the UK government will issue new licensing rounds for exploration and drilling of oil and gas in the North Sea. The rounds will go ahead each year so long as the UK remains a net importer of oil and gas and if emissions from UK-based production remain lower than those associated with imports.

In the US, Republicans have maintained a firm support for oil and Donald Trump, the most preferred Republican nominee for President has vowed to overturn any existing legislation and commitments made by the Democrats against the fossil energy sector, by signing an executive order to issue new rounds oil and gas drilling.  According to Trump this would be his first executive order immediately signed, if he was elected to power in November of 2024. Clearly, the US political will is divided and the future US policy terrain on oil and gas cannot be guaranteed.

Quietly, the leading oil producers are strongly supporting continued pumping of oil. Despite global campaigns, large oil producers are still skeptical that renewables can replace oil in the medium term and by 2050. They believe that the focus should be on decarbonizing oil and not ending its supply and use all together. Ending use of oil would be returning the world to stone age error, one Middle East leader remarked at COP28 before backtracking after coming under intense criticism. The approved language at COP28 was phase down and not phaseout. Oil therefore may have a longer lifetime than earlier anticipated.

Despite the catastrophe that the war has caused, that we all condemn, Uganda and Tanzania should exploit the opportunity it provides to ramp up and conclude talks with South Sudan on the viability of exporting its oil via EACOP.

How EAC can benefit from its Critical or Transitional Minerals

The EAC has vast deposits of minerals critical to driving technology to support the green industrial revolution and yet the region lacks a proper framework to govern and maximize benefit from this mineral potential.  Our analysis shows that all is not lost. There is still an opportunity for the EAC to reorganize and take a share from the increasing critical or transitional minerals demand.

By Moses Kulaba, Governance and Economic Policy Center

@critical minerals @mineralsgovernance @eac 

What is the EAC’s regional problem?

Critical or transitional minerals are loosely defined as mineral commodities that have important uses to industrial technology to support the transition to a clean energy future, have no viable substitutes, yet face potential disruption in supply. These minerals include (but limited to); Graphite, Coltan, Nickel, Tungsten, Tantalum, Tin, Lithium, Manganese, Magnesium, palladium, Platinum, Beryllium, copper, fluorspar, Holmium Niobium, Rhodium, Titanium, Zinc etc. The EAC has vast deposits of some these and yet the region lacks a proper framework to govern and maximize benefit from this mineral potential.

Minerals as a national resource vs regional resource

The issue of mineral is politically sensitive. It lies at the intersection of national pride and sovereignty. Minerals are considered as a national resource whose value cannot be discussed or shared at regional level. Most countries have chosen to address mineral issues at a national level, carefully safeguarding what they consider their national interests.

Unfortunately, by taking this route, EAC mineral rich countries have exposed themselves to weaker negotiation power, and fallen easy prey to the divide and rule game played by some quick profit accumulation seeking multinational mining companies.  These mining companies take on each country as an independent jurisdiction, setting each up for competition against the other and demanding exorbitant favorable terms to invest.  The net effect is that EAC mineral rich countries have weaker negotiating powers and signed off bad deals. It is perhaps for this reasons that the EAC has selected to focus on protecting aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems such as forests and mountains in shared areas.

Raging political instability and counter accusations for harboring insurgents.  East Africa’s mineral rich regions face raging political instability, with each member states accusing the other of supporting and harboring hostile insurgent’s, violation territorial sovereignty and plundering of the abundant mineral resources.  For example, the DRC accuses Rwanda of supporting the M23 in Eastern Congo while Rwanda has constantly accused the DRC of harboring the FDRL. Similarly, Uganda’s Ailed Democratic Forces (ADF) rebels have found refuge in the DRC.  Burundi accuses Rwanda of supporting hostile rebel groups against the Burundi government. As a consequence, EAC’s mineral rich regions have failed to secure maximum economic benefits from its mineral wealth. Efforts to jointly pacify the region through a military intervention by the East Africa Regional Standby Force failed miserably with the force withdrawn at the end of 2023.

Failure to curb cross border smuggling and illicit minerals trade.  The UNCTAD data from COMTRADE and other online sources show a big difference between reported mineral exports and imports data from receiving countries. For example, in 2021 the DRC reported exporting a net weight of cobalt of 898,869 kg valued at USD 3,277,615 while China reported importing a net weight of 190032 kg valued at valued at USD92,065, 332 in the same period. The difference between the reported export value by the DRC and the reported import value by China was a whooping USD 88,784,717. There are large disparities between the DRC’s minerals trade data with Dubai and similarly Kenya’s mineral trade data with Dubai.

Yet, the vice has continued unabated. The recent arrests of fake gold traders in Nairobi’s upscale Kileleshwa suburb confirms that illicit mineral business is rife in the region. Illicit minerals are crossing borders undocumented, with cartels exploiting the weaknesses in the border control mechanisms to make shoddy deals worth millions of dollars. The arrested illegal mineral traders had fake Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) documents and stamps showing that Uganda was the source country. There are reports that DRC’s gold and coltan is smuggled through Rwanda and Uganda. Rwanda , a fairly none rich mineral country is a large mineral exporter. According to government reports, Rwanda’s annual mineral export earnings in 2023 was USD1.1billion reflecting a 43% increase from USD772bln in 2022. Clearly illegal trade is denying the EAC millions of dollars in economic benefits.

Lack of regional harmonization of the extractive sector regulatory framework. There were attempts to develop a model minerals legislation but all these efforts suffered a silent death. As expressed by one of the EAC members of parliament, Arusha has become a cemetery of good policy intentions. Good at expressing desire and slow at action and implementation.

Poor geological survey data, compared to superior data sets in possession of mineral companies. This has often tilted the negotiation power balance in favor of the companies, leading to signing off poor deals by mineral rich host countries.

What opportunities exist?

 Maximizing on current EAC partners trade in minerals and mineral based products.

According to EAC regional statistics, the trade by EAC partner states in minerals fuels, mineral oils, products of their distillation, bituminous substances and mineral waxes were the most traded with a value of USD810.7million dollars in 2022. This was followed by trade in natural or cultural pearls, precious or semi-precious stones, precious metals valued at USD588.3million. Trade in nuclear reactors, boilers, machinery and mechanical appliances thereof ranked third with a value of USD238million[1]

This therefore shows there are a raw material and there is a market for mineral based products even within the EAC.  Scaled value addition and intra trade in minerals and mineral based products to serve the existing demand can significantly boost internal regional industrialization, create jobs and economic growth

Leveraging on current and future global critical/transitional minerals demand

With a regional approach, the EAC could benefit from the rapidly expanding demand and prices for green transitional minerals. Since 2020 the global commodity prices for Nickel, Cobalt, Coltan, Lithium and Copper has been on the rise. According industry experts, such as Equity Group’s CEO, Dr James Mwangi, the demand for these minerals can only go up, and prices can only go up because of their limited supply versus the global targets to reduce emissions by 2030. It is for this reason that global consumers such as China, Australia are in the rush to secure supply chains all over the World.  Tech players such as Tesla’s Boss, Elon Musk have equally explored possibilities to establish plants in the DRC and Tanzania so as to secure the raw materials and add value at source. So far, neither the EAC nor its member states have capitalized on these interests to develop a regional road map for investments into the green or transitional minerals subsector. Elon Musk’s investment plans have not materialized.

Use critical/transitional minerals demand to forge new strategic economic relationship

According to the Carnegie foundation, the combination of key mineral endowments in African countries and U.S. objectives to reorient clean energy supply chains away from competitors like China can serve as the foundation for a new economic and strategic relationship. In 2022 the US announced its desire to re-establish a new relationship with Africa driven by trade and investment. The EAC can use its abundant critical or transitional minerals potential to negotiate new long-term relationships based on mutual economic benefits away from the traditional donor recipient approach.

Attracting investments in Energy Sector

The EAC has large opportunity for investment into its renewable energy sector. Uranium, a key fuel in nuclear plants and nuclear fission, is found in eight locations in the South Kivu and Katanga provinces in the south of DRC. Tanzania and Uganda have large deposits of Uranium. These clean energy minerals are also backed with hydropower potential of the giant inga dam and Kenya’s geothermal potential.

The EAC commits to development of the energy sector covering both renewable and non-renewable energy sources. This is aimed at facilitating the broader EAC objectives of attracting investments, competitiveness and trade for mutual benefit. Despite this, there has not been joint EAC investment attraction drive purposed towards its regional power potential.  The regional plans to develop the giant inga dam as a flagship Agenda 2023 project contributing to the towards East Africa’s power pool have remained stagnant.

What EAC member states can do

  • Abandon limited nationalistic views and pursue large economic interests, from a regional lens
  • Conduct regional mapping and improve mineral geodata sets
  • Rekindle and accomplish plans to develop regional frameworks for mineral governance
  • Facilitate regional investment campaigns profiling critical minerals and clean energy sources as tier one commodities available for investment for the EAC
  • Stop the guns and think development

What would be the benefits of acting as an EAC region

  1. Joint investment promotions and attraction of the best investors
  2. Increased negotiation power and leverage for better deals
  3. Expanded regional value additional chains and industrial projects driven by large economies of scale. According to global statistics the DRC was the largest cobalt reserve (about 3.6million metric tons yet China was the largest processor(85Mt)
  4. Increased cooperation and opportunities for lasting peace
  5. Expanded economic opportunity and benefit for citizens.

 

[1] https://eac.opendataforafrica.org/

Critical Minerals: EAC destined large critical minerals block, yet benefits remain elusive

With the DRC and Somalia on board and new coltan discoveries made in Kenya, the East Africa Community (EAC) is now destined to become one of the largest critical minerals deposits rich and source region in the world, yet maximizing value and benefits as region remains elusive.

By Moses Kulaba, Governance and Economic Policy Center

@criticalminerals @energytransition

On the 15th December 2023, the Federal Republic of Somalia became a full member of the EAC becoming the 8th country to join this economic block. With its admission following closely on the DRC in 2022, the EAC has a total population of 320 million people with a geographical size of about 5.4million sqkm straddling from the Indian Ocean coastline to the Atlantic coastline.

The EAC now boasts as one of the largest single economic block with large deposits of minerals critical for mitigating climate change by driving the green industrial revolution and transition to clean energy. There are already prospects that Ethiopia and Djibouti will be joining the EAC. If this happens the EAC’s geographical size, population and mineral wealth will expand to rival or overtake other economic regions such as the European Union.

The size of Mineral Deposits combined

According to the EAC reports, the region is endowed with a variety of minerals, including fluorspar, titanium and zirconium, gold, oil, gas, cobalt and nickel, diamonds, copper, coal and iron ore. Such mineral resources present an opportunity for development of the mining industry, which is currently underdeveloped.

Mineral Resources in EAC

Country Precious metal, Gemstones & Semi-Precious Metal Metallic Minerals Industrial minerals
Burundi Gold Tin, Nickel, copper, cobalt, niobium, coltan, vanadium, tungsten Phosphate, Peat
Kenya Gemstones, gold Lead, zircon, iron, titanium Soda ash, flour spar, salt, mica, chaum, oil, coal, diatomite, gypsum, meers, kaolin, rear earth
Rwanda Gold, gemstones Tin, tungsten, tantalum, niobium, columbium pozzolana
Tanzania Gold, diamond, gemstones, silver, PGMs Nickel, bauxite, copper, cobalt, uranium Coal, phosphate, gypsum, pozzolana, soda ash, gas
Uganda Gold, diamond Copper, tin, lead, nickel, cobalt, tungsten, uranium, niobium, tantalum, iron Gypsum, kaolin, salt, vermiculite, pozzolana, marble, soapstone, rear earth, oil
South Sudan Gold, silver Iron, copper, tungsten, zinc, chromium Oil, mica

Source: EAC Vision 2050 and South Sudan Development Strategy

With the pressure of climate change and the 4th industrial revolution driven by a few green minerals, the EAC hosts vast deposits of minerals such as coltan, nickel, tantalum, copper and others vital in driving the green technological revolution to a cleaner energy future.

The admission of the DRC to the EAC was a game changer to the region’s positioning as a global player in the critical and strategic mineral’s space.  According to multiple sources the DRC is the world’s leading producer of cobalt, used in the manufacture of batteries. It is also the world’s fourth-largest producer of copper, used in the assembly of electric cars and the infrastructure of most renewable energy sources. Lithium deposits, estimated at over 130 million tones, are also present in the southeast.

The DRC has most of the mineral ores that produce key components in making computer chips and electric vehicles, technologies that are powering the drive to the future. In a typical computer, copper and gold are key components used in making the monitor, printed circuit boards and chips. Cobalt constitutes 6.45 percent of the materials that make electric vehicle batteries while copper constitutes 25.8 percent. Jointly, copper and cobalt constitute more than a third of EV batteries.

DRC is rich in these minerals, producing 68 percent of the world’s cobalt — the largest globally — and over 1.8 million tons of copper annually. Copper is estimated to gain and maintain more value on longterm compared to other minerals.

Before the DRC and Somalia’s membership, the EAC was already a major player. According to Geological Survey of Tanzania, Tanzania has close to 24 documented critical minerals such as Nickel, Tantalum and sits on the 4th largest premium grade graphite deposits in the world. Between 2005 and 2020, there was an exploration boom relative to other minerals for Tanzania’s Critical Minerals.

Uganda has vast deposits of copper and tungsten in its south western border areas while Rwanda is one of the world’s largest producers of tin, tantalum, and tungsten (3Ts) and coltan. Burundi has copper, cobalt and nickel in 2019, Burundi produced about 2% of the world’s production of tantalum.  Kenya has vast deposits of titanium, a mineral used in the manufacturing of aircraft transportation and solar panel parts. The new discoveries of coltan announced in Embu County in 2024 adds to Kenya’s list of valuable minerals. Although the commercial volumes of the new discoveries are yet to be determined, Kenya’s announcement expands the EAC’s critical or green mineral deposit map and its role in the green energy transition. Somalia, the EAC’s new entrant has some deposits of tantalum, tin and uranium.

These minerals lie along a common geological mineral belt running from Ethiopia and South Sudan downwards across the DRC, Uganda, Kenya, Rwanda, Burundi and Tanzania into Mozambique. The combined volume of these green minerals’ deposits competitively will rival other countries like China, Australia and regions such as the Lithium triangle in Latin America.

Given the global challenges related to climate change and the potential transition to a clean future. Energy Security and Energy transition are among the hottest areas of investment. The dash to secure deposits and supply chains of minerals critical to the development of green technology is on. Many countries endowed with these minerals are seeking to create wealth based on this transition.

Despite this critical mineral resources’ wealth, the EAC has failed so far to leverage and maximize economic benefits as a single region remains elusive. The EAC’s share of global investment in this lucrative extractive sector remains small. The EAC is riddled with extractive policy fragmentation, overriding nationalistic political desires and catastrophic death of joint extractive policy and governance actions.

According to the EAC treaty, the EAC partner states have agreed to take concerted measures to foster co-operation in the joint and efficient management and sustainable utilization of natural resources within the Community. Yet the EAC has no publicly available documented comprehensive regional plan on governing or managing mineral resources. The EAC has focused on management of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems.  Minerals are categorized as other natural resources.

By treating Minerals as a somewhat lesser regional priority, the EAC is missing out on a huge current and future economic opportunity internally and externally to drive the region to prosperity. We will discuss more about what these opportunities are and how the EAC can benefit in a separate article. Keep reading.

 

Tanzania’s offshore wind and tidal energy potential: How Tanzania can become a wind and tidal power giant

 

Tanzania faces acute electricity energy supply yet with investments in offshore wind and tidal waves projects, the country can turn fortune by generating extra electricity supply and ridding a straight path into a clean energy future.

By Moses Kulaba, Governance and Economic policy center

@climate change , energy transition and COP28 series

According to Global Information Systems (GIS) reports Tanzania has strong offshore winds capable of generating up to 17Gwh and estimated tidal stream power of 133 kW/m.  Yet this potential lies idle and unexploited.

At least 60 % (2/3) of Tanzanians lack access to power and in recent years and months, power rations have worsened, lasting for over 12 hours as the national grid suffers from acute shortages due to overloads and deteriorating infrastructure. The situation is worse in 2023 compared to five years ago and has affected Tanzania’s economic production and growth substantively. According to the world bank the cost of power outages in Tanzania cost businesses about 15% of annual sales and millions of dollars to the national economy.

The energy shortage also affects the semi-autonomous territory and tourist hotspot Zanzibar, which is heavily reliant on the mainland Tanzania for its electricity generation and supply. Both Unguja and Pemba are completely reliant on power purchased from TANESCO through submarine cables of 100 MW and 25 MW capacity, respectively.

Zanzibar lacks its own power generation facilities, and electricity is supplied from mainland Tanzania by the 132kV undersea cable.  The cable has reliability and maintenance challenges sometimes plunging the entire Island into a total power blackout. As a partial mitigation against this risk, Zanzibar Electricity Company (ZECO) maintains 25MW of grid-connected high-speed back-up diesel generators. Most hotels, offices, industries, and various private sector consumers have their own captive emergency diesel generators to supplement in situations of power outage. However, the cost of maintaining these is high and their constant emission of poisonous fumes during operation is dangerous to the environment. Offshore wind and tidal electricity would help Zanzibar wean itself from over reliance on the mainland’s Tanzania National Electricity Supply Company (TANESCO) as the National grid has been perpetually facing power shortages.

As of the year 2021 Tanzania’s total electricity supply was 1605.86 MW. Peak electricity demand in the country is expected to roughly quadruple by 2025 to 4,000 MW. To help meet this demand, Tanzania is targeting installed capacity of 10 GW by 2025. However, maintenance issues and climate change-induced water shortages have caused a 400-megawatt electricity shortfall in Tanzania, triggering power rationing across the country. For many Tanzanians, it is repetitive cycle of darkness. The sun rises and there is no power. It sets and it’s pitch black – in fact, according to government data at least two-thirds of Tanzanians don’t have access to electricity.

Developing of wind shore and tidal waves electricity generation capacity would be a win-win situation for both Zanzibar and Mainland, as it would supplement the much-needed electricity during peak hours and reduce on the heavy burden imposed on the national grid, providing power to many customers who need it.

Moreover, these projects if developed, would be a game changer for the Country’s  energy sector. They would catapult the country long steps ahead of its peers in achieving its energy access goals, and meeting its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) Goals on the road to clean energy transition. For this to happen, some deliberate political and policy choices have to be taken.

Why offshore wind and tidal power is important

There are questions about intermittency and whether technology exists to support investment into Tanzania’s offshore wind and tidal wave potential. Our basic analysis suggests that projects of this nature would be viable and worth giving a try.

The United Republic of Tanzania (URT) is the largest country in East Africa, located between longitude 290 and 410 East and Latitude 10 and 120 South. URT has a Territorial Sea of 64,000 km2 and an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of 223,000 km2, which is about 24 percent of the land area. Tanzania has a total coastline of 1,424 km running along the Indian Ocean, with an average wave energy potential of 7.5KW/m and theoretical potential of 94TWh/y. The coastal population is estimated at 30% of the total population, providing a huge potential for the generated electricity.

Tanzania has both shallow waters close to its coastline which would allow offshore wind projects development under the current technology and an extensive Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) off Zanzibar’s shorelines ideal for anchoring deep water floating platforms to allow it to access wind resources at much deeper water depths across its entire EEZ. The government is open and has been encouraging investment in its current EEZ. However its current investment drive has targeted the fisheries sector. With an extended offshore coastline and Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) running off Zanzibar, Tanzania has unique advantage compared to its regional neighbors.

From a cost perspective, offshore wind and tidal wave projects are viable. There is much more wind on the shoreline than on land, with an average of speed of more than 50m. Evolution of turbine technology, installation experience has allowed economies of scale and costs of wind power generation has gone down significantly. It is further projected to reduce by 40% over the next decade.

Moreover, the levelized cost of selling power on the market has gone down significantly as economies of scale for wind turbines have grown. The cost of selling electricity has come down to approximately $50/Mwh. Therefore, wind energy now is one of the cheapest generated powers compared to gas combines cycle, coal and considerably cheaper than solar PVs.

Globally, wind generated power is projected to grow as countries ramp up their clean energy generation in line with the road towards net-zero by 2050. This a trend that offshore wind technology will rapidly become cost effective renewable energy technology and a good option that developing countries can consider when developing pathways towards decarbonizing their electricity supply-system.

Tidal energy will also be a good option. Ocean tides are generated by tidal raising forces associated with gravity and centrifugal forces and the earth’s orbiting system or position  relative to the sun and moon. When these two bodies are in balance there are unbalanced forces on the surface of the earth that can push the ocean water left and right, causing tides. Tidal energy is taken from the kinetic energy of these orbiting forces to generate power. The orbits systems and tidal movements can  be predictable years in advance and for this reason, it would be possible to estimate ahead when and how large the tides would be and the possible amount of electrical energy generated would be.

The offshores of Zanzibar lie in the belt with high M2 tides with 1-2-meter-high tidal amplitudes capable of generating a lot of power. Combined wind and tidal power could serve as a major Peaker, supplying offshore wind and tidal generated electricity during the peak hours. Evidence from the United States, United Kingdom and Canada suggests that an integrated energy system of this nature can be a game changer in addressing energy shortages, and driving the country towards a cleaner energy generation

What is required to make it happen?

  1. National Energy Policy and Strategy review and orientation towards offshore wind and tidal wave energy development. This would mean placing offshore wind and tidal wave power generation as part of the national energy systems power mix plan.
  1. Supporting institutional framework by breaking up TANESCO and ZESCO to curve out an independent agency responsible for offshore wind and tidal power. An agency similar to the US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) would be given a focused mandate to develop offshore wind and tidal wave power sector by mobilizing resources (technical and financial), attracting private sector investment and regulation, decreasing developer risks and encouraging inter-agency and stakeholder cooperation.
  1. Another policy direction would require the government to purchase at least given minimum amount of offshore wind and tidal wave capacity. The new agency would be tasked with delivery of such an amount to the National or Zanzibar power grid. This would provide a room for long-term off take Power Purchasing Agreements (PPA), decreasing major sources of uncertainty for project developers.
  1. Government to conduct necessary further research to support offshore and tidal wind projects. This would include update data collection to determine the costs benefit of offshore wind and electric systems configurations, site characterization, and dissemination would be required. Tanzania lacks marketable data.
  1. Political will and determination to explore new energy frontiers and commitments to a clean future. Although there could be some political sensitivities between the mainland and Zanzibar as towards having projects of this kind because the Union matters political configuration, the economic benefits from this potential outweigh the political undertones. To counterbalance, strategic project of this nature could be anchored under the current governments (Union and Zanzibar) blue economy development plans.

 

 

Energy Transition: Why Africa must focus on Energy Aggregation and Consolidation

Historically, energy transitions have never meant one energy system completely replacing another rather one system reducing quantitatively amount of use in favour of another. The rise of coal ,the steam engine and petroleum did not end the use of traditional sources of energy such as firewood and horsepower.

By Moses Kulaba, Governance and Economic Policy Center

Delivering Charcoal in Uganda (Rod Waddington/CC BY-SA 2.0)

Globally, there is an increasing focus on climate change and energy transition. There is debate on the risks that these portend and an emerging view/ consensus that energy systems must transit gradually to achieve a net zero carbon emission   by 2050. Africa is at a dilemma, caught up in its realities and a myriad of contesting advice on which policy direction it should take.

This article attempts to deconstruct this increasing popular narrative on climate change and energy transition by arguing that it is unrealistic to achieve net zero by 2050 and a complete energy transition for Africa is impossible. Climate change may be real but achieving total decarbornisation by 2050 may be farfetched. I take this posture by looking historically at how previous changes in energy systems happened and Africa’s realities.

Chronologically, energy transitions are not new. They have happened before. Perhaps what make this possible transition quite significant is that it has been linked with the catastrophic climate change and global warming. This transition therefore is viewed as one of the remaining silver bullet to save the planet.  However, an analysis of historical trends and the manner in which the road to decarbonisation is framed and the narrative/view that energy systems must transit by 2050 is therefore problematic.

Historically, energy transitions have never meant one energy system completely replacing another but rather one system reducing quantitatively amount of use in favour of another. The rise of coal and the steam engine did not end the use of traditional sources of energy such as firewood and horsepower.

Between 1780’s to 1860’s whale sperm oil was a dominant source of energy for lighting before being replaced with the discovery of petroleum. This can be considered as the first energy transition after man discovered fire.  However, the two energy sources co-existed into the next century before petroleum became the dominant source. Whale oil did not disappear but retained value as a resource after the discovery of petroleum. In the 20th Century, Whale sperm oil was used for new purposes, including margarine, lubricants soaps, detergents, vitamins D and nitroglycerine, which is still in use today. 

According to Yale Professor, Paul Sabin, the discovery of petroleum is often cited as an example of an energy transition, where one fuel completely displaced another.  Yet this argument is totally flawed because the discovery of petroleum actually made it possible to hunt whales at a massive scale. The fossil driven ships could travel and conquer deep seas than before and stay their longer as merchant anglers trapped, caught and killed and stored whales in their thousands.[1]  There could not have been modern whaling before fossil fuels were readily available.

While the demand for whale oil declined after the discovery of petroleum, its demand continued to rise. By the 20th Century, sperm whale catch peaked in the 1960s to over 250,000 tones before declining in the 1970s and 1980s. Numerically, it took almost over 100 years between 1850 and 1980 for this gradual decline to happen.

Indeed, recognizing the pace at which the whales were fished for their sperms and other products to near extinction, in 1986, the International Whaling Commission (IWC), established in the 1940s,  banned commercial whaling because of the extreme depletion of most of the whale stocks. Even with the IWC ban in place, to date whales are still-hunted and killed for their sperms and other products, as was the practice during those mediaeval times. Japan left the IWC in 2019 and now hunts whales without any international restriction.

Moreover, historical data shows that the advent of both coal and petroleum as new energy sources  did not take animal powered energy systems out of the market. When goods carried by the coal fired steam engine train locomotive at the station, one needed horses to haul it to the final destination.  In the United States animal power increased with the number of horses and mules rising from 4.3 mln in 1840 to 27.3mln in 1920.

To date animal power continues to exist and still forms a major source of motorization in many parts of the world. Even with the advent of the advanced petroleum, based engines, in some parts of Africa, when goods arrive by bus, truck or lorry at the nearby road terminal one requires animal power (cow, horses, mules or camels to carry them the next mile to next village destination.

This suggests that different forms of energy systems are complementary to each other rather than antagonistic. One fuel has always added to another expanding both the energy supply and energy mix. The fossil-based systems will therefore continue to serve side by side with the clean energy systems.

In my Country, the two-wheeler petroleum powered motor cycle (Boda Boda) is slowly replacing the cow and donkey horsepower as major form of transportation linking the main road to the rural interior.  However, the cow, donkey and horse power are not going away too soon. In some areas the human power is still largely used with people carrying their heavy loads on their head or pulled carts.  The electric car is yet to arrive and will take long to dominate our major roads in the city and perhaps another 100 years to make it to the final mile into our villages. For Africa, therefore energy shift from animal and human-based power to fossil-based energy is just midway. It will therefore take many decades to leapfrog to a total clean energy system.

 Since the Paris Declaration, there has been an upscale in clean energy sources compared to the previous years. However, the pace at which clean energy is being deployed is too low to overtake fossil-based sources by 2050.There is evidence that not only Africa is doing badly on this front.

In its 2023 report, the IPPC experts warned that we have already reached the catastrophic point of no return (keeping global temperatures under 1.5 degrees and on a clear path to miss the net zero target by 2050. Green House gas emissions continued to increase. Policies and laws addressing mitigation have consistently expanded since  the Paris declaration but theses are yet to cause a dent in global carbon emissions . Global GHG emissions in 2030 implied by Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) announced by October 2021 make it likely that warming will exceed 1.5°C during the 21st century and make it harder to limit warming below 2°C. There are gaps between projected emissions from implemented policies and those from NDCs and finance flows fall short of the levels needed to meet climate goals across all sectors and regions, the IPCC report states.

Since the climate problem is defined as too much greenhouse gas emissions, rather than too little energy, this historically suggests that only a solution that actually limits carbon dioxide emissions will work. However, when the climate problem and decarbonisation is defined with targets this way, there is a serious problem.

Factually, Africa is energy poor. The IEA World Energy Outlook, however, shows that close to 600 million people remain without access to electricity in sub-Saharan Africa. Over 80% of Africa’s population depends on biomass as a source of fuel.  The electrification stands at around 40% and use of clean sources such as solar stands at a mere 4%. The net zero is barely 30 years from now and how Africa can turn these statistics around is quite impossible.

With the current statistics and demographics, decarborization (or net zero) is in many ways unprecedented as it means or suggests eliminating the use of a currently viable and profitable fuels and replacing this with another.

Globally, fossils are too dominant and producing countries are too reluctant to let them go without proper substitutes to replace them.  Yet dominant fuels have major characteristics that make them difficult to be easily replaced. These include; having large market share, economic dominance/ascendance, political dominance, established institutional structures to support and cultural influence on the users.  All these take time to be built and embedded into the energy system. Yet an energy transition reflects a change in the balance between fuels and a shift in their characteristics.  That clean energy system will take over the characteristics of the current fossil-based systems in the next 27 years is quite an uphill task.

The recent global events have shown that the world can reach a net zero emission in 2050 is over exaggerated and practically impossible to achieve. The simple disruption in petroleum supply chains by the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 showed us this realty. Barely two months into the war, had developed countries such as German turn around on fossils to fire up their coal-based plants to generate energy.

Indeed, one EU leader remarked that all along Europe was wrong on coal as source of energy and that European economies could survive without fossil-based energy. German, Austria, France, and the Netherlands fired up their coal plants to save gas. Coal exports from Africa to Europe boomed and new coal investments in the US increased. The energy transition even in developed countries is happening but not without significant setbacks.

Since the 2015 Paris agreement, the 2050 net zero deadline has been a moving target.  India has said it would turn net zero only by 2070, while China has set a target of 2060. Russia and Saudi Arabia amongst major economies, have also set 2060 as their net zero targets. Some African governments such as Ghana have suggested 2060 as their deadline. The reality is that this net zero target, where the world is so clean and devoid of any carbon emissions may never be reached.

For Africa, therefore the answer to this conundrum of what direction the continent should take lies in energy aggregation and consolidation. This is where by new energy systems are layered on to existing systems and gradually scaled up as, they become technologically advanced, cheaply available and affordable,  to meet the continent’s sustainable energy needs. There has to be no rush for Africa to transit by 2050! Africa does not have to pay heavily to secure a net zero and a just transition by 2050.

 Africa’s future  is safe by developing hybrid energy systems that can at the same time sustain the fossil based systems, while clean energy systems are aggregated and consolidated on an incremental basis for the next long-term future.  What is required for now therefore is;

  1. Research and developing technologies that can reduce the toxic levels and carbon intensity in the petroleum based sources of energy so they can continue to be used in a clean future.
  1. Developing alternative products that could continue to be useful in support of the fossil industry, even with its diminished existence in the next 100 years. As earlier mentioned, while whale sperm oil stopped its usefulness as a dominant source for lighting, it continues as a key ingredient used to produce other high valued products.
  1. Developed countries appreciate that the journey will be a long one before our energy systems can significantly decarbonize. Even with the increased uptake in solarisation and other cleaner systems, biomass will continue to play a dominant portion as a source of energy to the bigger population in Africa.
  1. Our policies have to be pragmatic but less ambitious to avoid pitfalls in implementation and application, achievement of their intended objectives. Africa is not devoid of policies. It is a graveyard of policy implementation.
  1. Africa has to define its own energy transition pathway that is aligned to its practical realities and deficiencies. It is likely that fossils will continue driving Africa’s energy system past 2050.

In the climate justice space, perhaps Africa should be advocating for a Just Energy Aggregation and not a mere Just Energy Transition!

[1] Richard York: Why Petroleum did not save the whale; socus sociological research for a dynamic world , December 2017

 Disclaimer: This blog article is produced as part of our ongoing policy discussion series on climate change political economics and energy transition.  The discussions and briefs  therefrom are intended to share dissenting views and provoke intelligent debates ahead of major climate spaces such as COP28. The views contained herein may not necessarily fully represent those of the Governance and Economic Policy Centre (GEPC) but aired in support of intellectual democracy and geared towards securing a continental consensus.

Securing Tanzania’s clean energy future: How Tanzania can harness its renewable energy opportunities

With a high wind potential that covers more than 10% of its land and a solar power potential estimated to be 31,482 TWh for CSP technology and 38,804 TWh for PV technology and a global horizontal radiation of 4–7 kWh/m2/day , Tanzania is a step away from becoming a reckonable power giant in clean renewable future

By Moses Kulaba, Governance  and Economic Analysis Centre

@climate change, energy transition series

Tanzania, like other developing countries,  has perennial energy shortages and striving to find different ways of ensuring affordable and accessible energy supply to its citizens and economic development needs.

In order to secure affordable and accessible energy in the country, renewable energy is viewed as a viable alternative energy source. It is readily available,  environmentally friendly and if harvested,  produced and utilized in a modern and sustainable manner, it can help to eliminate Tanzania’s energy problems.

Tanzania’s power sector is dominated by state-owned TANESCO (Tanzania Electricity Supply Company Limited). TANESCO owns most of the country’s transmission and distribution network, and more than half of its generating capacity. The grid faces acute shortages and power outages due to excessive demand and a dilapidated infrastructure, making reliance on the current fossil and hydro based energy generation systems impossible to cope with the country’s energy demand.

Tanzania’s electricity generation comes mostly from natural gas (48%), followed by hydro (31%), petrol (18%) with solar (1%), and biofuels (1%). The traditional dependence on hydropower combined with the droughts that are affecting the country, often result in power supply shortages[2].

According to reports, Tanzania has a lot of renewable energy sources such as biomass, solar, hydropower, geothermal, biogas, wind, tidal, and waves. These sources are important for decentralized renewable energy technologies, which are ideal for the isolated nature of the settlements and are environmentally friendly. Despite their necessity, renewable energy sources are given low priority by both government and Households[1].

The World Economic Forum (WEF) reported the total sum of global investment into renewable energy has increased. This was supported by a 28% annual increase in investment from the United States (U.S), in 2019 totaling $54.6 billion[3]. Renewables cannot totally replace fossils such as oil, but increased investment shows increased potential contribution in the energy mix.  The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates annual clean energy investments will more than triple by 2030.

With its vast resources and location, there are opportunities for Tanzania to investment in its abundant solar and wind energy potentials. Perhaps, it is argued, the country can leverage its strategic position to scale up investment to generate more and at the same time position as a major supplier and user of renewable energy sources. So far, in Tanzania, solar energy is used as a source of power by 24.7% of the households with access to electricity.

Tanzania’s Solar Energy potential

A study by Ahmed et al in 2017 suggested that Tanzania has an annual technical solar power potential in Tanzania was estimated to be 31,482 TWh for CSP technology and 38,804 TWh for PV technology. Potential solar energy resources are found in the central parts of the country[10] [1]. There are high solar energy levels ranging from 2800 to 3500 h of sunshine per year and a global horizontal radiation of 4–7 kWh/m2/day [1,70].  

According to the World Bank, Tanzania has a solar energy potential greater than that of Spain and wind energy potential greater than that of the US State of California. With such great potential for solar energy resources, Tanzania is naturally appropriate for producing solar energy as a feasible alternative source for modern energy supply and rural electrification.

The solar energy market in Tanzania has drastically grown and increased over the last few years. Currently, the potential solar energy resources in Tanzania are used in different parts such as solar thermal for heating and drying and photovoltaic for lighting, water pumps, refrigeration purposes, and telecommunication. Solar energy is used mostly in rural areas with about 64.8% compared to urban areas with only 3.4%. The regions of Lindi, Njombe, Mtwara, Katavi, and Ruvuma lead in the use of solar power electricity in Tanzania[11]. Despite the increasing market for solar energy applications, there are fewer signs that the government is expecting to include solar PV in the national electricity mix in any substantial way in the future.

Tanzania’s Onshore Wind energy potential 

Tanzania has areas of high onshore wind potential that cover more than 10% of its land[5]. This is equivalent in size to Malawi and has greater potential than the US state of California, as reported by the World Bank report. There are areas with annual average wind speeds of 5–8 m/s[6] . These exist along a coastline of about 800 km with predominant surface winds, moving from south-east to northeast.

Based on the current research works, Tanzania has a lot of wind energy resources in the areas of Great Lakes, the plains, and the highland plateau regions of the Rift Valley. Wind energy evaluation indicates that areas such as Makambako (Njombe) and Kititimo (Singida) have sufficient wind speed for grid-scale electricity generation, with average of wind speeds 8.9 m/s and 9.9 m/s at the height of 30 m, respectively[7]. Small-scale off-grid wind turbines along the coastline and in the islands also possess great potential in Tanzania.

By 2017, at least four companies had expressed interest in investing in wind energy in Tanzania to build wind plants with a capacity of more than 50 MW. These companies included Geo-Wind Tanzania Ltd in Dar es Salaam,  Wind East Africa in Singida, and Sino Tan Renewable Energy Ltd. and Wind Energy Tanzania Ltd in Makambako.

It was further reported that wind farms with capacities of 100 MW in Singida would be constructed under the corporation of the Six Telecoms Company in Singida, financed by the International Finance Corporation and Aldwych International in London, the United Kingdom. The project would cost US$286 million[8].

But generally, the uptake of investments in wind energy is still low. Compared to other renewable energy resources that attract investment, most  projects have tried with little success to produce utility scale electricity from the wind energy. Tanzania’s renewable energy sector remains dormant with potential.

Recently, the government has indicated plans to review its national energy master plan with a view of integrating its energy mix with  renewable sources. This provides an opportunity for government to be intentional and focused on scaling its renewable sources from solar and wind.

What is stopping Tanzania’s renewable energy sector 

There are efforts and greenfield wind projects such as  the Mwenga project , the first wind farm to ever be built in Tanzania was completed in 2020. According to the project directors, Camco Clean Energy, the 2.4MW project – which received a $1.2m loan from the UK Government-funded Renewable Energy Performance Platform (REPP) – was supposed to be connected to an existing grid network, providing energy security to communities across the country. However, there are gaps such as financing, infrastructure, storage, and government facilitation which potentially limit investment, scale up, use and benefiting from this potential.

  • High investment costs: The cost for initial investment is high and the returns on investment are slow. With the dominance of TANESCO as a monopoly and absence of readily available Power Purchase Agreements for independent producers, project financing for renewable energies is still difficult.
  • Misaligned government priorities; Government efforts have largely emphasized hydropower projects. Other renewable energy sources such as solar, thermal, wind, biomass, and biogas are under-prioritized so far due to different socioeconomic and political reasons
  • Institutional and regulatory barriers; These are one of the main difficulties of developing renewable energy projects in the country, stakeholders say. According to Camco managing director Geoff Sinclair  “It’s very difficult to get a bankable PPA signed, offtaker creditworthiness remains an issue, and tariffs are regularly and somewhat randomly reduced to levels that undermine commercial viability.
  • Unmatched political will : The political will and support towards renewable energy over the past ten years has been on and off. After a major push in 2013 , the momentum appears to have dwindled.  Many projects stalled and such as the 150 MW Singida Wind Power project are yet to be fully delivered. In 2013, the Vice-President of China Daliang International Group, Mr Xu Youliang, told  Tanzania’s Prime Minister, Hon Mizengo Pinda,  that this project would be ready and start generating power by 2015. To date this has not materialized. Similar projects such as the Same Wind projects are still on their drawing boards and political support has been waning. Despite the energy resources available in the country and the government’s pledge to invest in renewable energy, foreign investors feel discouraged from  scaling up investments in  Tanzania’s renewable sector.
  • Overriding dissenting views on power of renewables in Africa: Further, this lukewarm and unpredictable stance towards renewable energy such as wind and solar seems to be a general  attitude  across the African continent. African governments have been slow to take on largescale renewable projects.  Some of African political leaders, such as Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni, have argued that renewable energy is not sustainable to meet the future global population energy demands. It cannot even meet or drive Africa’s development agenda. 
  • Unreliability and lack of technology for storage: Renewable energies such as solar and wind are largely dependent on whether and climatic factors and therefore unreliable as a source of power. The technology for storage has not advanced enough to guarantee continuous supply whenever needed 
  • Potential of land grabing and conflicts: Moreover a solar farm requires huge tracts of land, and this can or may potentially spark off a new wave of land grabbing by solar energy investors, triggering land conflicts across the continent. Africa could is a bystander in renewable energy technology. For Africa to benefit, investment in technologies and production of equipment, such as solar panels and wind turbines must be on the continent.

CSOs such as power shift Africa , Anti Coal Coalition[4] and others however argue that investment in renewable energy is economically viable, and can  create jobs and increase access to energy to the poor and rural areas where access to the national grid is difficult. Significantly, investment in renewables will help Tanzania achieve its domestic transition and unlocking the country from a fossil future.

What can be done?

  • Moving forward, therefore the mysteries surrounding renewable energy and Tanzania’s potential must be unlocked 
  • Government, along with other renewable energy stakeholders, should complement existing policies and strategies to address issues related to renewable energy development to ensure timely and sustainable utilization of the available resources.
  • There is the need to provide a sound business and investment environment to local and foreign people who can provide capital towards renewable energy technologies and development.
  • There should be more training and awareness made available to the public about how to invest and use renewable energy.

Tanzania can and must benefit from the energy transition by upscaling its potential by starting to roll out implementation. Stalled renewable projects should be implemented.

[1] Obadia Kyetuza Bishoge: The Potential Renewable Energy for Sustainable

Development in Tanzania: A Review, 2018 accessed at : https://www.mdpi.com/2571-8797/1/1/6/pdf#:~:text=Tanzania%20has%20a%20lot%20of,are%20environmental%20friendly%20%5B1%5D.

[2] https://www.trade.gov/energy-resource-guide-tanzania-renewable-energy

[3] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/06/global-clean-energy-investment-research/

[4] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/aug/01/african-nations-set-to-make-the-case-for-big-rise-in-fossil-fuel-output#:~:text=African%20nations%20expected%20to%20make%20case%20for%20big%20rise%20in%20fossil%20fuel%20output,-Exclusive%3A%20leaders%20expected&text=Leaders%20of%20African%20countries%20are,documents%20seen%20by%20the%20Guardian.

[5] Tanzania Invest. Tanzania Has High Potential For Renewable Energy Projects, US Consulting Firm Indicates. TanzaniaInvest. 2015. Available online: https://www.tanzaniainvest.com/energy/tanzaniahas-high-potential-for-renewable-energy-re-projects (accessed on 15 April 2018).

[6] Kasasi, A.; Kainkwa, R. Assessment of wind energy potential for electricity generation in Setchet, Hanang, Tanzania. Tanz. J. Sci. 2002, 28, 1–7.

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