Why growing influence of Non-State Actors in diplomacy and consular practice is a cause for alarm in smooth running of State foreign affairs

Why growing influence of Non-State Actors in diplomacy and consular practice is a cause for alarm in smooth running of State foreign affairs.

By Moses Kulaba, Governance and economic analysis centre

Diplomacy has been defined by scholars such as Ernest Satow as the intelligent act of applying tact in the management of international relations by actors through relationships and interactions in the official conduct of their official activities in order to achieve the goals of their national interests guided by a nation’s foreign policy. It can equally be described as an international intercourse between sovereign states with an aim of advancing mutual interest in a peaceful manner. However, in recent years, non-state actors are becoming influential diplomats with credentials worth for government recognition.

Since diplomacy and consular practice is still largely about interaction between sovereign states, the role of the state is still significant.  However, if the current trend continues, it is likely that in the future, the state will become a player with different roles and functions, such as facilitation of diplomatic and consular interaction.

From the onset of its definition and practice, diplomacy was conceived as an activity within the exclusive purview of the state.  Realist and Classical theorists of politics and international relations at the time believed in the supremacy of the state and its dominance in diplomacy. Diplomacy was seen as a tool for seeking dominance and asserting power.

For political philosophers such as Machiavelli (1469-1527), in his book The Prince, he argued that state power and foreign relations were so sacrosanct to be entrusted with any other actor other than the prince (The leader) and the state.  For Machiavelli, diplomacy was only pursued in preservation of the safety and security of the state. This was the main goal of the state and he urged his Prince (The ruler) to pursue these interests at all costs, including war where diplomacy failed.

The realist ideas were challenged by liberal theorist such as John Locke and Immanuel Kant who saw that actors in International relations were both state and non-state actors. The world was viewed as anarchic in nature, with conflicting interests and competing egos. Restoration of the world order and the pursuit of global peace, democracy and international cooperation required a multilateral approach with multiple actors.

Indeed, overtime diplomacy has evolved. Today, diplomatic activities are carried out by non-state actors, whose activities transcend beyond their national borders and the confines of the state. 

Participation on Non state Actors in diplomacy and consular practice has become a pronounced phenomenon. Concepts such as corporate diplomacy, Non-Governmental Organizations (NGO) diplomacy, business diplomacy and conference diplomacy have become quite familiar in diplomacy and consular practice.  Experts such as Saner & Liu acknowledge that diplomacy has mutated overtime.

Globalization and democratization have rendered the professional boundaries more porous and put into question the territorial claims of the traditional diplomats. Alternative diplomatic actors have emerged within and outside the state and often act independently from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Diplomacy as a profession has undergone changes in terms of definition, qualification and role expectation of what is or not supposed to do  (Saner & Yiu: 2003).

The following non state actors influence postmodern diplomacy and consular practice in greater proportions than before.

International Organisations and agencies have become key non state actors influencing postmodern diplomacy.  These operate at sub regional, regional and global level, pursuing different sets of predetermined goals.  Sub-Regional international organizations such the East African Community (EAC), South African Development Cooperation, Common Market for Eastern and South Africa (COMESA) and North America Free Trade Area (NAFTA) may have economic integration agendas while continental and global international organizations such as the African Union and the United Nations respectively pursue broader international goals.

These organizations have vast resources and access to countries and interact with a wide range of actors and issues ranging from political affairs, peace to development.  They generate reports and international law documents shaping international diplomacy. They have a large membership base whose collective voices at times counteract or challenge individual state concerns. Indeed, this was one of the arguments advanced by the British Prime Minister Ms Theresa May in her campaign for Britain to exit the European Union. In her opinion, the United Kingdom as a state had become weak and most of its sovereign the powers to govern and diplomatic interaction had been transferred to Brussels. According to the ‘Brexit’ campaigners, the UK could not make foreign policy decisions on issues such trade and asylum without consulting the European Union headquarters in Brussels. The UK’s appropriate answer to this counter influence, in Ms Theresa May’s view, was to quit the European Union. The influence of the European Union in influencing the European Continental diplomacy is therefore significant and alarming its member states.

The International Non-Governmental Organisations (INGOs) are the other major non state actors influencing diplomacy and consular practice. Saners and Yiu have describes this new phenomenon as Diplomacy of International or Transnational NGOs. These operate at various levels from the national to the global level. These include INGOs such as the Oxfam, Human Rights Watch and humanitarian agencies such as the International Committee of the Red Cross and Red Crescent.

They are engaged in various activities such as environment, human rights defense, economic and social development. Some are focused on Monitoring state excesses and bad corporate behavior. They may be concerned with the negative impacts of development and exclusion of the poor. INGOs have abilities to mobilize, protest and challenge states, corporate and multilateral agencies such as the World Bank and the United Nations.

They have demanded and recieved representation in major multilateral agencies such as the United Nations. Through these representations, they have been effective in putting forward policy options, alternative models and articulating their views in the international arena, their by challenging the roles of the state and traditional diplomat in dominating policy formulation and practice at the international arena.

A good example was during the negotiations towards signing of the Kyoto protocol on climate change and the recently concluded Paris Climate Change Summit, where the environmental INGOs were instrumental into pushing the member states into signing the protocol and an agreement respectively to reduce carbon emissions and global warming. INGOs and grassroots movements were in 2000 effective in influencing the World Health Organisations and governments to negotiate the framework Convention on tobacco control with aimed at reducing exposure to effects of tobacco to the public through stringent regulations of tobacco companies and smoking in public places.

Others such as the Red Cross respond to emergencies and deliver humanitarian aid in areas of crisis.  Have strong connection with the international community and often use their extensive network to communicate with the international arena by submitting reports, policy position papers and are represented at international forums with equal status as member states, their by limiting the dominance of the traditional state in diplomacy and consular practice.

National NGOs have become influential in modern diplomacy and consular practice. These represent the interests of civil society at the national level. They constitute a broad range of Civil society ranging from small to big organizations, engaged in a broad range of issues such as corruption, economic and social development and human rights monitoring.

By constantly interacting with other foreign actors they have curved a niche in foreign relations which is now commonly referred to as diplomacy of National NGOs.  They largely receive funding from outside the Country and share their periodic reports with their local and international benefactors and constituencies. With greater access to information, they are capable of sharing their views with a wider global audience and shaping international opinion at greater speed and effect than national state actors and Ministries of Foreign Affairs (MOFA).  Their unfettered access to the global audience and influence on foreign relations is a cause of alarm in diplomatic and consular relations

Transnational Corporations (TNCs) and Multinational Corporation (MNCs) have become major non state actors in diplomacy operating across borders in both developing and transiting economies. With globalization and free movement of capital in the form of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) companies today conduct businesses across Countries. However, this comes with a lot of challenges such as regulation, taxation, intellectual property and dispute settlement. MTNCs also interact with international organizations such as the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and the International Labour Organisation (ILO) on matters of trade and labour standards (Saner & Liu: 2001). Companies also want to keep good international reputation and their global market share.

In order to deal with these international challenges, MTNCs have been encouraged to start ‘diplomatic’ activities which promote or consolidate their operations. Examples of such include trans-national business councils and forums such as the Trans-Atlantic Business Council (TABC) which is a major forum both the US and Western Europe as a forum to coordinate their position at the WTO and other related issues. Similar forums exist in Tanzania such as the Tanzania-Nordic business forums, India Tanzania Business Council and Tanzania National Business Council (TNBC).

These business councils put forward policy positions and papers and form alliances through multiple networks (embassies) to promote their agenda.  Tanzania’s National Business Council is chaired by the President of the United Republic of Tanzania. TNCs and MNCs through their councils influence foreign policy positions of their countries and may also call for global action on matters of peace and war, thereby limiting the dominance of the traditional state actors in diplomacy. The American Oil Corporate lobbyists through the American Council on Foreign Relations were instrumental in influencing the United States invasion of Iraq in 1991 and 2003.

In underscoring their roles and influence in Diplomacy and Consular practice, Saners etal and Kishna suggest that the increasing participation of MTNCs in diplomacy has contributed to the rise of new terminologies to diplomacy such as Corporate Diplomacy, Commercial Diplomacy and Business diplomacy.

Eminent Individuals are also becoming major actors in diplomacy and consular practice.  These are people with influence on global affairs and impact on diplomacy and consular relations. They include eminent persons such as the late Koffi Annan, the Aga Khan, the Dalai Lama, Bill Gates or Yousaif Malala. They have international following and always invited to international forums to share view and offer policy options. They work through various informal, formal, state and international networks to influence diplomacy. For example, Ms Malala’s views on the girl Child’s education may have more global impact than the views of an education minister from poor sovereign states. Their influence is insurmountable.

There is also an increasing debate and acceptance of the view that even ordinary individuals have influence on diplomacy. For example, when an individual makes a presentation at a global conference about his country, such a person is engaging in a form of diplomacy and his or her opinions may shape the perception and views of other states against his or her Country. Although this debate is not conclusive, it is evident that diplomacy and consular practice is no longer restricted to state actors.

The role of organized criminal Gangs and armed Groups such as drug cartels, pirates, fundamentalist and terrorist groups such as Al-Qaida, International State in Syria and Levant (ISIL), Alshabab  and nationalistic movements such as the Free Syrian Army and Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) are equally becoming major actors in diplomacy and consular relations.  These operate across borders and have significant influence on the politics, economy, peace and security in the territories where they operate. They have access to vast resources and may use their extensive international network for mobilization and propaganda.

Recent history has shown that conflicts are largely involving non state actors. The 2001 attack on the World Trade Center by Al-Qaida operatives working through a wide network of operatives and alliances has shaped the post 911 era and global approach to peace and security. After the 2001 attack on the World Trade Center, many Countries strengthened their national security apparatus by enacting strict security and counter terrorism laws. The US reviewed its relations with some states by blacklisting them as state sponsors of terrorism. The role of the UN in addressing global peace was effectively discussed and its influence as a multilateral body for pursuing global peace and diplomacy was discussed. This discussion continues to date.

In some Countries organised criminal networks have worked to overthrow or install governments and contributed largely to instability forcing state actors to negotiate for peace. A good example is the FARC in Colombia and the ongoing peace talks between the Syrian Government and the Free Syria Armed forces.

These actors have drawn states into international wars such as the US led Coalition in Afghanistan, Iraq and the current ongoing conflict in Syria and Yemen. The US has also increased its military presence in the Middle East and Africa including establishing an African Command to oversee US engagement in Africa in operations such as tracking the Lord Resistance Army (LRA) in Central Africa Republic and overseeing Counter Piracy Operations in Somalia. Clearly, their influence on diplomacy and consular practice is evident.

The Media is becoming a major non state actor in diplomacy and consular practice. The advent of the internet and social media has opened forums for influencing diplomacy and consular practice to non-state diplomats. Access to the media and global community is no longer an exclusive of the state. The media and internet have challenged the power relations between the state and non-state actors. Through the internet and various social media practitioners, citizens and individual bloggers can interact with the world with greater speed and access than state actors. Using social media platforms non state actors can create content, develop imagery and mobilize. They can shape and influence foreign relations and diplomacy by sharing their independent thoughts. Through social media, they are able to galvanise support and determine, extend or counter the foreign policy of their countries. An example of the increasing role of the media was during the Arab spring in 2011 where social media, the internet and mobile phones were used to mobilize support and participation in the overthrow the governments in North Africa and the Middle East.

In emphasizing the role of the media in international relations, the US and other actors have always promoted the use of the internet and social media as a vent for free speech. The US as a major global player in diplomacy has always condemned any state acts to restrict access to internet and social media.

Despite, the increasing role of non state actors, their participation in diplomacy has raised concerns within the modern field of diplomacy and consular practice. Perhaps Melisens definition and concerns (in Saner and Yiu.pp11) best captures the post modern nature of diplomacy that is characterize by simultaneous participation of multiple state and non state actors and pulse of concerns generated from their influence when he writes

While greater representation and participation of diverse interest groups leads to a democratization of the political processes at the national and global levels, it also makes diplomacy and international relations vulnerable to fragmentation and possible outbreak of conflicts due to potential paralysis caused by too many state and non state actors with mutually exclusive policy goals

Saner further adds that the ‘New entrants’ to diplomatic arena represents different groupings and organizations of local, national and international interests. These divergent forces co-exit with each other and exercise different forms of diplomatic influence to achieve their objectives. The alarm arises from a number of reasons which include;

The representation of Non state actors may be private and not state inspired. Sometimes their interests may not necessarily be aligned to the national interests. The primary goal of a multinational company may be to maximise profit and dividends to its shareholders. This may be contrary to its Country of origin’s foreign interest in that Country.  The states interest may be to secure stronger political or military alliances rather than pursuing commercial interests.

Non state actors may be oblivious to political and cultural sensitivities of foreign states. Diplomacy and consular practice is about understanding the political and cultural sensitivities of a given country and respecting these when pursuing a Country’s foreign interests is vital concern. Their involvement is therefore seen as a risk of concern to state actors in diplomacy and international relations.

Non State Actors may be frontiers of external actors whose interests may be contrary to either the national interests of their Countries of origin or countries of operation. Prof. Mweisga Baregu, a scholar of International relations, in his book and articles on understanding obstacles to peace, the actors’ interests and strategies, deconstructs the role of international agencies in peace.  Baregu has sarcastically referred to humanitarian agencies such as the Red Cross and Red Crescent and Medicen sans Frontier and some United Nation agencies as ‘ambulance chasers’. In Baregu’s views, the interests of these agencies are sometimes not necessarily humanitarian but may be driven by other interests such as employment and foreign actors like research and pharmaceutical companies. They may therefore be interested in the continued existence of the conflict so as to maintain their status quo and other related benefits. Their influence in diplomacy and consular practice is therefore of concern.

These non state actors may not be fully equipped with diplomatic tools and customs of diplomatic practice. Diplomacy is a profession guided by a set of customs and international law such as the Vienna Convention on diplomacy and consular practice (Vienna Convention 1961 and 1963). As suggested by Zirovcic and Simonitti (Simonitti: 1994) the customs of diplomacy and legal norms of diplomatic law are positions whose violation results in sanctions. Any breach of these customs is a violation of diplomatic ethics and constitutes incorrectness in diplomatic relations (Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations 1961) and consular relations (Vienna Convention on Consular Relations, 1963). Violation of these customs is a blow to the international reputation of the international entity that allows such practices and may result in a breakdown of diplomatic relations between states. While non state actors such as TNCs may at times engage personnel with diplomatic training to pursue their ambitions. However, their actions cannot be subject to the global rules of International law as such as the Vienna Convention.

This position is well captured by Saner (Saner etal: pg9) when they argue that global managers are competent in managing business stakeholders in all countries they operate. They may not be able to deal with complex issues such as democracy, political pluralism and respect for human rights in countries where they operate.  Failures in dealing with these non business related issues can easily lead to crisis, open conflicts which may spark diplomatic confrontations between their home countries and their countries of operation. The increasing influence of Non state actors in diplomacy and consular practice therefore raises alarm.

The lack of centralized leadership and respect of international norms or custom of international law by non state actors such as criminal gangs and their threat to international peace and security is a ground for alarm in diplomacy and consular practice. Organised criminal groups are difficult to coordinate and may be difficult be held to account for their actions in international diplomacy and consular practice. The actions of ISIL, Al-Qaida and Alshabab in Syria, Iraq and Somalia may be clear international war crimes and crimes against humanity in international law. However with the difficulty in pinpointing their actual leadership, it is difficult for the international community to hold specific persons or states to account for their actions. These organizations also operate without respect to internationally recognized state territorial borders and are therefore threat to state and transnational diplomatic relations and practice.

In light of the above, it is proper to conclude that diplomacy in the post modern era has changed with more influence of non state actors in diplomacy and consular practice. As suggested by Saner diplomacy has mutated and the role of the state diplomat and traditional embassy in advancing diplomacy and consular practice is ebbing (Rana: 2009). This is because in the future the main consumers and beneficiaries of diplomatic interaction will be businesses and non-state actors.

Since diplomacy and consular practice is still largely about interaction between sovereign states, the role of the state is still significant.  However, if the current trend continues, it is likely that in the future, the state will become a player with different roles and functions, such as facilitation of diplomatic and consular interaction.

References

What is state capture and its impacts on political governance in Tanzania

What is state capture and its impacts on political governance in Tanzania

By Moses Kulaba, Governance and economic analysis centre, Dar es Salaam-Tanzania

State capture can be simply defined as a way in which individuals, corporations, organizations or groups of organizations and interest groups such as political elites, business interests, cartels and criminal gangs influence government decisions, structures and processes through political or quasi political systems and structures with an intention of promoting, protecting and achieving their own interests.

There are two major types of state capture: These are spectrum state capture, which involves individuals having undue influence on decision making processes in government and Oligarchy, which involves organized cartels, organized groups of individuals and syndicates controlling and influencing government decisions and processes. Examples of oligarchies include the famous Russian Oligarchies and cartels include the South American (Colombia and Mexican) drug cartels such as Sinaola drug cartel under the leadership of Joaquin Guzman, famously known as ‘El Chapo’

The impact of state capture on the proper functioning of the state is enormous in a sense that state capture affects government’s ability to function and make proper decisions. State capture has also been with the famous term called kleptocracy, which is essentially stealing from the state coffers for private gain.

State capture leads to creation of a rent seeking state, where corruption shrives, becomes systemic and entrenched in government and public service. In a rent seeking state, key public services such as health, jobs are only received after paying bribes and ‘back shisi’ to government officials and those entrusted to serve the public.

It causes bad public spending as the corrupt secure lucrative public tenders for procurement and supply of essential goods and services to government. The procured supplies or goods may be over priced, of poor quality or never supplied at all.

It creates an unfavorable business environment where the politically connected businesses with influence on the national leadership and state organs manipulate, influence and secure government decisions, regulatory frameworks and protection in favour of their business interests.  Small legitimate businesses either seek protection of the big corrupt businesses or collapse under the weight of unfair competition.

It significantly affects the rules of justice, law and order where by individuals, corporations or groups ‘capture’ institutions of justice and influence judges and high ranking officials of the judiciary, law and order sector through bribes to protect or make decisions in favour of their private interests.

It also affects national security as the corrupt individuals, corporations or groups use their influence to infiltrate the system by ensuring their collaborators secure jobs in the government security apparatus. Through these connections and influence, top national secrets may be shared with these individuals, businesses or cartels for private gain. They are also able to use the government security apparatus and resources such as police, military and arms for protection.

Through illicit political party financing, election fraud and intimidation, state capture may lead to ascension to power of bad leadership.  This is achieved through financing political of political parties and sponsorship of candidates whom they deem to be in their favour. Once in power, the elected political leaders are influenced to make corruption deals, award tenders and protection as reciprocal gesture to their political god fathers.

New threats to peace and Security:  Extent to which new security threats of Piracy have affected economic and human security in East Africa

New threats to peace and Security:  Extent to which new security threats of Piracy have affected economic and human security in East Africa

By Moses Kulaba, Governance and economic analysis centre, Dar es Salaam-Tanzania

Security is taken to be about the pursuit of freedom from threat and the ability of states and societies to maintain their independent identity and their functional integrity against forces of change, which they see as hostile.

In recent years piracy and cyber security have emerged to represent new security threats to economic and human security like never before.

Security has been defined as protection from any kind of threat but in total departure from the orthodox view as perceived by the military and war professional. Experts such as Buzzan (1991) have defined security as freedom from fear or threat of social, economic, society, environmental and military concerns.  Buzzan therefore expands the definition of security to include human and economic security dimensions to the concept of security. 

Human security, as an approach gives understanding to national and international security by adding a dimension that gives primacy to the safety of human beings and their complex social and economic interactions.  In this approach to security, the subjects are individuals and the end goal is the protection of people from traditional threats such as military concerns to nontraditional threats such as poverty and disease.

The UN has advanced this concept further by declaring that “Human security is an approach to assist Member States in identifying and addressing widespread and cross-cutting challenges to the survival, livelihood and dignity of their people” (General Assembly resolution 66/290

Other organisations such as the International Committee of the Red Cross view security from an economic lens. The ICRC defines economic security as the ability of individuals, households or communities to cover their essential needs sustainably and with dignity. This can vary according to an individual’s physical needs, the environment and prevailing cultural standards. Food, basic shelter, clothing and hygiene qualify as essential needs, as does the related expenditure; the essential assets needed to earn a living, and the costs associated with health care and education also qualify.

By understanding peace and security from such a broad lense, it is therefore possible to understand the nexus and extent to which new threats such as piracy and cybercrime have on human security.

Piracy as a security threat

Piracy has been defined as an act of robbery or criminal violence at sea. It includes acts committed on land, in the air, or other major bodies of water or on shore. It generally involves unlawful, boarding, kidnap and commandeering of marine or land vessels or convoys to undesignated locations or destinations for looting, ransom or other purposes.

Although the term “piracy” may conjure up images of bearded men with eye patches, wooden legs and parrots who were convicted and buried centuries ago, pirate attacks are indeed posing a threat today’s shipping lines (and human wellbeing) all over the world.   According to reports, the number of Pirate Attacks globally between 2009 and 2017 was 2717 with 180 attacks registered in 2017 alone.

Causes of an upsurge in piracy

There are many reasons to explain the increasing rise in piracy but some of these have been constantly made;

  • The disappearance of US naval forces fleets from major international water bodies after the end of the cold war. This has allowed pirates and criminal gangs to operate freely on the open high seas with minimal interference
  • The improvement in maritime navigation and technology which has enabled launching and navigation of larger ships manned by smaller crew who are extremely vulnerable to pirate attacks
  • Expansion of jurisdictional waters beyond those which are directly in effective control and patrol of their claimant states.
  • Instability, state collapse and increasing harsh economic conditions in Countries such as Somalia and Yemen.
  • Falling states and absence of centralized governments in Countries such as Somalia
  • Lucrative ransoms paid which acted as incentives for more attacks
  • Long uncompleted trials and deterrent punitive measures to convicts which motivated others to conduct attacks
  • Radicalization and justification of piracy as tool in response to political interference, economic dominance and over exploitation of marine natural resources by global super powers such as America.

Today, pirates’ attacks pause a genuine threat to maritime transportation and security. Pirates are capable of cutting off important transit choke points such as the Strait of Bab al-Mandab between Arabia and Africa or the Strait of Malacca in South East Asian waters.  In 2017, the trade routes around the Indonesian coast as well as in Bangladeshi and Nigerian waters were counted among the most perilous at sea paths globally.

The Horn of Africa, along the Somalian coastline, has become one of the most dangerous waters prone to piracy attacks.  According to various reports maritime piracy off the Horn of Africa grew in frequency, range, aggression, and severity at an alarming rate covering more than 2.5 million square miles of ocean. Since 2007, Somali pirates attacked and harassed vessels transiting up to 450 miles offshore in the Indian Ocean and in the Gulf of Aden, a natural chokepoint providing access to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal.  The number of actual or attempted attacks in the Somalia’s territorial waters off the East African coastal shore line was 462 with 5 attacks reported in 2017 alone

For 2017, an International maritime organization, One Earth Future (OEF)’s Oceans Beyond Piracy (OBP)  recorded a total of 54 incidents in the Western Indian Ocean region, marking an increase of 100 percent from 2016. Accordingly, 2017 saw an increase in the number of seafarers affected by incidents of piracy and armed robbery at sea, from 545 in 2016 to 1,102 in 2017. For the first time in two years, OBP recorded incidents of hijacking and kidnapping at sea in the region. Suspicious activity continued to be the highest represented incident in the region in 2017 reporting a significant increase from 13 recorded incidents in 2016 to 32 in 2017.

The short surge in hijacking attacks in the first quarter of 2017 was attributed to several factors. These include the continued intent of pirate action groups to launch attacks and the opportunity to do so, due to lessened adherence to ship self-protection measures, including Best Management Practices (BMP). Independent deployers represented the primary naval presence in the region, but both coalition forces and independent deployers decreased days of operation, or days on station in the region, in 2017.

Effects of Piracy on human security

Piracy has led to significant decline in human security, by instilling fear, insecurity and fatalities along the East African coastal shoreline. According to OEF- OBP on the state of piracy, the number of piracy on the East African coastline tripled in 2016. There were 54 piracy incidents on the East African coast in 2017—more than triple the 16 incidents recorded in 2016.  It states that the number of sailors affected increased from 306 in 2015 to 1,102 in 2017, with at least 79 of them injured or threatened in the attacks in which 41 per cent of the attackers were armed. The number of attacks as in previous years shows that the capability and intent of pirate networks has not decreased. This was witnessed with the increased number of hijackings, including of the Aris 13, the Asayr 2, and Al Kausar. The number of hostages killed or injured by Somali pirates increased significantly in 2017, according to further maritime reports.

Nearly 4,000 seafarers were fired upon by Somali pirates, the report said. Of that number, 968 seafarers faced armed pirates who managed to board their vessels, while some 413 of those seafarers were rescued from secured rooms on their vessels by naval forces. At least 1,206 hostages were held by Somali pirates in 2011, including 555 seafarers attacked and taken hostage during the year, and 645 captured in 2010 who remained in pirate hands. Half of those held were subjected to punching and slapping and 10% suffered violent abuse such as being locked in freezers, burned with cigarettes and having their fingernails pulled out with pliers, the reports stated.

Effects of piracy on economic security

In 2017 the economic effect of piracy on East Africa was estimated at USD1.4billion. This was a slight decline from $1.7 billion in 2016, mainly due to a 13 per cent decrease in the use of privately contracted armed security personnel. The costs had stabilized over the past three years, after a decline between 2010 and 2015, from about $7 billion in 2010 to $1.3 billion in 2015.  None the less, these amounts are substantively high if measured in correlative development terms and represent a significant economic security risk to the region.

Piracy has increased administrative cost measures in counter piracy measures. It has led to increased military presence and diversion of vital resources to combat piracy.  In 2011 the total costs in military counter piracy measures was estimated at USD 1.27bln.  This was spent on administrative budgets, military vessels and unmanned aerial vehicles. An additional USD 635 million was spent on insurance premiums. The cost of prosecuting pirates in trials and imprisonment was USD5.3 million.  These figures have substantively increased in 2017.

These are vital resources which could have been used for other development activities such as social service provision and infrastructure development but have been switched towards addressing piracy off the coast of Somalia.

Effect on trade and commerce

Piracy has affected trade and commerce along the East African coastline. According to the South African Institute for Strategic studies (ISS), trade in sub-Saharan Africa was slowly suffering from the consequences of piracy on major shipping liners along the Eastern African coast.

The resurgence of incidents of piracy has the potential to affect international trade and maritime movement of cargo around the East African coastline. In advertently this has collateral damage to East African economies and other Countries around the world.  Shipping liners have to consider alternative routes which are perceived safer routes such the Suez Canal, the South African tip or even the Panama Canal.

Increased costs in freight and insurance charges.

One of the major consequences of piracy is the increase in insurance rates for the shipping industry and the need to purchase additional insurance to cover the risk associated with transiting a piracy prone region. For example, insurance companies now offer “kidnap for ransom” policies to ships that move through the Suez Canal.  According to one insurance company, the U.K. based Hiscox, prices the policy at US$15,000 per trip through the Gulf of Aden and was reported to have increased dramatically.  Also, because of the danger posed to shipping transiting the Gulf of Aden, insurance premiums had risen tenfold. For example, insurance companies had increased premiums for sending a cargo shipment through the Gulf of Aden to about US$9,000 from US$900 in a period of one year.

From an economic point of view, having Africa’s access to internationally developed materials such as nuclear reactors, vehicles, tractors, imported and exported food, and other materials reduced will be devastating. More worrying is the impact of a decrease in exports of natural resources from African countries.

Piracy has changed the livelihoods of communities along the Somali coastline who have abandoned vital livelihoods such as agriculture and nomadic farming to join piracy. Fishing communities have also been forced to abandon fishing from fear of attacks at sea and hence changed the entire economic security of communities living along the coast of Somalia. According to the UNDP many Somali youth joined piracy as a source of employment and piracy is seen and proven to be a vital ready source of income and path to quick wealth and prosperity.

Piracy financing of money laundering and terrorism

The proceeds from piracy have found their linkages to finance money laundering and terrorism activities. According to the World Bank, the Somali pirate business model relies heavily on onshore support infrastructure to conduct ransom negotiations. Generically a pirate operation consists of armed offshore operations with onshore support that provides shelter for returning pirates and access to markets for stolen goods and for the goods, services, and manpower needed for pirate attacks. The total amount of money paid in ransom fees by various companies was estimated billions of dollars. Most of this was invested in legitimate business such as real estate, forex bureaus and financing Alshabab terrorist activities.

There is risk of fueling war and further instability with deadly military hardware captured by pirates falling in the hands of militants.  Although previously pirates targeted fishing vessels and smaller cargo ships, they later targeted larger vessels such as chemical tankers, bulk carriers and thus pausing a higher security risk than ever.

Amongst their high-profile targets included a Ukrainian vessel loaded with heavy weapons and a Saudi owned VLCC. The MV Faina, or “crown” in Russian, was a Ukrainian vessel loaded with rifles, heavy weapons and 33 Soviet made T-72 tanks that the pirates captured on 25 September 2008. The ship was initially thought to have been heading for Sudan or some other African country, possibly Kenya. The MV Faina was then surrounded by three warships from the Combined Task Force 150 during its hijack to prevent the ship’s deadly cargo from ending up in the hands of Somalia’s Islamic insurgents and other terrorists. The initial ransom demand was for US$35 million but it was finally released for a reported sum of US$3.2 million.

Piracy has affected Tourism and investment along the East African coast of Somalia. Piracy attacks on hotels and large deep-sea fishing vessels has significantly retarded invested in East African coastal economy, along the Somalian coastline.

There have been regional attempts to combat piracy. The US and EU Naval patrols and tracks pirates off the East African Coastline and the Gulf of Aden under the auspices of Joint Task Combined Task Force (CTF) 150 including troops from the US, EU and Canada. This has accounted for the declining numbers of attacks in the recent years. The downside of this effort is that the task force is externally funded and cannot be a long-term solution.  This therefore demands that Eastern Africa states step up their capabilities to counter piracy along its long coastline.

In a nutshell, piracy represents one single new threat to human and economic security. Despite a reduction in reported cases of piracy in 2018, the disappearance of piracy in the 19th Century and its resurgence in the 1990s and increase between 2000 and 2017 shows that this security threat is not over. Perhaps the pirates and their benefactors are planning and waiting to strike their next target.  Extra vigilance, collective military and civilian measures are required to contain this threat.

 

 

Reference:

Effects of Cyber Security on Human and Economic Security

New threats to peace and Security:  Extent to which new security threats of Cyber security have affected economic and human security in East Africa

By Moses Kulaba, Governance and economic analysis centre, Dar es Salaam-Tanzania

Cyber security or attacks by using highly sophisticated technology and cyber space to penetrate, modify, adulterate or alter existing ICT infrastructure to inflict significant, damage to a country, an installation, equipment, companies or individuals. According to NATO cyber insecurity is crippling of vital defence and military installations and capabilities to protect human security

Effects of Cyber Security on Human and Economic Security

From a military or defense security perspective, cyber security threat from the following angles or forms

  • Cyberterrorism is the disruptive use of information technology by terrorist groups to further their ideological or political agenda. This takes the form of attacks on networks, computer systems and telecommunication infrastructures.
  • Cyberwarfare involves nation-states using information technology to penetrate another nation’s networks to cause damage or disruption. In the U.S. and many other nations, cyberwarfare has been acknowledged as the fifth domain of warfare (following land, sea, air and space).
  • Cyberwarfare attacks are primarily executed by hackers who are well-trained in exploiting the intricacies of computer networks, and operate under the auspices and support of nation-states. Rather than “shutting down” a target’s key networks, a cyberwarfare attack may intrude into networks to compromise valuable data, degrade communications, impair such infrastructural services as transportation and medical services, or interrupt commerce.
  • Cyberespionage which is the practice of using information technology to obtain secret information without permission from its owners or holders. Cyberespionage is most often used to gain strategic, economic, political or military advantage, and is conducted using cracking techniques and malware.

In recent past cyber-attacks have become quite rampant. In 2008 the Estonian attack in which the entire Estonian Government agencies, financial institutions and broadcasters were jammed by Russian cyber attacker was a good example. In 2010 the reports of attacks on googles mails by Chinese hackers and Sony pictures were a clear reminder of the extent of the risk posed by Cyber security.

Cyber-attacks have capabilities to disrupt government systems, transport and communication infrastructure and defence capabilities.

However, from a human and economic security perspective, cyber insecurity has largely affected social and economic sectors. Cyber security has globalised or regionlaised organized crime. According to the UK government’s Cyber Security Breaches Survey 2017 found that the average cost of a cyber security breach for a large business was £19,600 and for a small to medium-sized business was £1,570. According to a CISCO Annual report on cyber security, over one third of organizations that experienced breach in 2016 reported loss of substantial customer opportunity and revenue loss in more than 20%

Effects of cybercrime of human and economic security in East Africa

Experts have described the East African digital economy as weak and vulnerable to multiple cyber attacks

“Essentially, in terms of cyber resilience, the Kenyan digital economy can be likened to a slow, plump gazelle stumbling through the ‘cyber savanah’’ in the full view of an agile, informed and hungry cyber predator, keen to sink their teeth into their sumptuous prize”

In 2016, African countries reportedly lost USD2bln in cyber-attacks. Remittance based economies, which depend on electronic wire transfers of money from its foreign sources and nationals living abroad via the international financial system were the worst hit

Effects on Financial systems

Financial transactions such as banking and money transfer services have been the largest targets affecting millions of people. In East Africa it was reported that Kenya was the worst affected with a total estimated of loss of USD 171Mln while Tanzania lost USD85million and Uganda lost USD 35million in its financial sector.

Tanzania’s cyber security report for 2016 warned of critical dangers facing the country. According to the report technology adoption is driving business innovation and growth in Tanzania, while at the same time, exposing the Country to new and emerging cyber security threats. Terrorists, spies, hackers, fraudsters are increasingly motivated to target Tanzania’s Information, Communication and Technology (ICT) infrastructure due to the value of information held within it, the report indicated.

One of the major risks was lack of awareness amongst technology users. According to the report over 1.6 million Internet Portals (IPs) were publicly accessible and over 138,000 network security events were reported.

Effects of exposure through interconnected and domestic gadgets

Cybercrime has reduced human security risk through exposure to interconnected things such as medical devices, smart TVs, cars and other gadgets. Research has found potential vulnerabilities in dozens of devices such as insulin pumps, and implantable defibrators. Hundreds of connected TVs are potentially vulnerable to click fraud, botnets, data, ransomware. Cybercriminals have developed mechanisms to remotely take control of personal gadgets such as remotely opened cars, personal computers.

Threat to privacy and confidentiality

There is a security risk of breach of confidentiality and personal privacy on vital confidential documents and personal data. As governments become digitalized through the drive for e-government, confidential government documents and personal details of its citizens are now more exposed to cybercrime. From passports, birth certificates, medical reports, pension numbers and personal IDs are now interlinked via the electronic networks

Costly policing and administration in cyber defence

Fighting cybercrime is very costly to police and enforcing cyber security diverts the already constrained government resources away from financing vital social services such as education and health. According to  cybersecurity readiness report very few governments and companies can afford to invest in highly sophisticated cyber security defence systems.  The Kenyan Cyber Security report highlighted that about 44% of financial institutions run on a paltry cyber security budget of USD1-1000 annually. About 33% of financial institutions in Kenya have spent nothing on all matters of cyber security.There are limited skills to manage and address it and keep ahead of cyber criminals, the report warns.

Regional attempts to counter and fight cybersecurity

Regional initiatives to combat cybercrime have been initiated through specialized units now established in the military and police forces of the East African states. However, they are still ill trained and under equipped to effectively contain the threats.

In conclusion, it is evident that the threats of piracy and cyber security has been increasing and pause a major threat to human and economic security of the region. Piracy and Cybercrime are highly organized global crimes with vast networks operating miles away. The weak counter measures and lack of adequate resources to counter these threats suggest that these will remain security threats to the region for longtime.

Indeed, given the increasing threat that cyber-crime has generated it is probable to suggest that future wars may/will not be fought on the battle fronts but in cyber space. Soldiers of the future will not be Generals commanding battalions and platoons of mobiles soldiers marching across battle fields.  The generals of the future will be technologically savy individuals sitting in high-tech offices and issuing commands to remote computers, gadgets and robots deployed to engage targets thousands of miles away.

 

Reference:

State fragility and conflicts

The Countries in the East African region are prone to varying degrees of state fragility and conflicts. The countries are defined by latent, perennial, intermittent and protracted conflicts. The causes and drivers of these conflicts are many and complex and include political and resource governance concerns, manipulation of ethnic, political and religious identities, mobilisation and manipulation of a largely unemployed youth force.

Even though the multi-party system established in many of the countries in the region since the 1990s has endured. Elections in the region are as much a ritual than a democratic process. There are widespread reports of bad electoral management and electoral fraud with none of the elections held during the past few years fully passing the test of free and fair.

Natural resource-based conflicts and the zealous appetite to control extractive resources and benefits have pushed Countries such as Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Somalia into war and conflicts. The prospects for petroleum resources occurring largely in border lying areas threaten further efforts for regional stability and co-existence.

Incumbent presidents have largely relied on state institutions and armed forces or rigged elections to remain in power and countries such as Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, Djibouti, DRC and Eritrea have had constitutional changes to facilitate the extension of presidential term limits while Sudan and Tanzania are pushing for similar changes.

The region is faced by an ever-looming threat of terrorism.  New in this regard is the increased radicalisation and recruitment of women and children into the terror groups. An example of this is the Mombasa police station attack by 3 women in September 2016 and hence the importance of addressing gender dimensions in efforts to counter violent extremism.

With over 1000 ethnic groupings subscribing to a multitude of faiths of which Islam and Christianity are the largest, the region is one of great diversities. More often than not these diversities have been captured by ethnic, political and religious elite to destabilise social relations and drive conflicts in the region. Ethnic tensions and at times violence have been hallmarks of election campaigns in countries such as Kenya where elections are won on the basis of ethnic bargaining rather than due democratic practices.

  • UNECA: Building Trading capacities for Africa’s Transformation: A critical review  of Aid for Trade, UNECA, Addis ababa, 2013

 

Economic Policy and Opportunity:

Tanzania has maintained a stellar economic growth, posting an average of 6%- 7% and low single digit inflation rates between 2015 and 2019. On July 1st of 2020, Tanzania was ranked by the World Bank as Lower Middle Income (LMIC) status. However this growth is inequitably distributed and could face significant shock backs if some governance deficits are not addressed.

According to the World Bank, Tanzania’s gross national income (GNI) per capita increased from $1,020 in 2018 to $1,080 in 2019, exceeding the threshold for lower-middle income status. This places Tanzania as the second middle income status country in East Africa after its neighbour Kenya. The World Bank announcement demonstrated that the Country’s economic fundamentals have been well managed and with a projected growth of 6% to 8% in 2021-2025, Tanzania wants to sustain this status.

However, Tanzania government and World Bank reports show this growth has been inequitably distributed and some policy gaps to ensure the benefits fully trickle down exits.

Youth budge, unemployment and limited opportunities

Over the past decade the levels of population growth in Tanzania and the region has increased. In Tanzania the population growth rate increased from around 27 Mln in 2000 to 43 Mln in 2013 and it is estimated to double by 2030. The overall projections are that over 60% this population will be comprised of young people. Also significantly over 30-40% this population will be unemployed and living below the poverty- line. 

These projections therefore call for radical policy measures which will promote resource mobilisation, improved social service delivery, entrepreneurship and investment to create jobs to absorb this population. Currently investment as percentage of proportion of GDP remains at 12% which is low by African standards. As Tanzania stands at the brink of the Millennium it is imperative to encourage more robust private sector investment. Mobilising citizens and private to participate and influence government policy decisions and process is core to achieving these targets

Under this program we tackle

  • Policy frameworks and achievements
  • Economic Marginalization and equity (How economic policies are affecting specific segments of the population, youth, women etc)
  • Monitoring resource Allocation- Tax advocacy, Budget Analysis work
  • Expanding Opportunity-Business and Entrepreneurship
  • Trade and Investment- (International trade documents, regional trade flows etc)

Work in this area includes

  • Analytical policy briefs
  • Specialised public dialogues and convenings
  • Training & awareness raising
  • Advocacy

More about this can be read via our latest news, reports and publications sections.

  • Ndulu B, J and Mutalemwa K. Charles:  Tanzania at the turn of the Century; Background papers and statistics; Unleashing the private sector development for Tanzania’s development
Regional Economic Cooperation and Diplomacy.

At national level the governance structures are weak and prone to systemic abuse by unresponsive political elite. At international level the government’s commitment to national and regional governance standards has been modest. Tanzania and a number of East African countries have signed up to a number of regional economic and governance commitments.

Tanzania is a member of the East African Community (EAC) and South African Development Community (SADC). Under the EAC framework the government has committed itself toward entering into a single customs territory, as a mechanism of increasing regional trade. Tanzania is also a member and signatory to a number of African Union protocols

Despite the entering in action of EAC Common Market Protocol in 2010, number of issues under the protocol are still not yet implemented. This is also built on the fact that the Customs Union protocol of 2005 is not yet fully fledged. Tanzania has been on constant blame by other EAC members that it is reluctant in implementing the signed commitments. 

Commitment to regional governance standards and norms such as AU’s African Governance Architecture (AGA)

The African Governance Architecture (AGA) is an AU mechanism or framework for dialogue between stakeholders that are mandated to promote good governance and bolster democracy in Africa. According to the AU so far by end of 2018 a total of 45 Countries had signed the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance (ACDEG). Out of these 30 member states have ratified and deposited their legal instruments with the AU and hence effectively domesticating AGA-ACDEG implementation in their countries.  Only 8 member states have not signed and not yet ratified ACDEG. 

Tanzania is one of the 8 African states and only East African states that has not signed nor ratified and deposited the instruments in recognition of ACDEG. Yet Tanzania is high ranking member of the AU and has constantly reiterated its commitment to the AU’s visions and aspirations of a prosperous African continent by 2063.

Tanzania participated in the 14th -16th African Heads of state summits and endorsed the decision to establish ‘Pan African Architecture on Governance. The outcome of which was the African Governance Architecture. It also took part in the decisions that aligned key AU instruments such as the ACDEG and African Charter of Human and People’s Rights (ACHPR) in line with the AGA. 

Tanzania is host to the African Court of Human and People’s rights based in Arusha, a key institution in the realisation of AGA and ACDEG’s aspirations.  It is therefore imperative that Tanzania signs and fully ratifies the ACDEG. The AGA and ACDEG provides a framework for raising the governance and human rights standards in the Country and Citizens participation in building, promoting and monitoring these standards, and the broader AU vision and aspirations. The reasons for failure to sign and ratify are not given although the relevancy for the ratification for ACDEG and implementation of its standards in Tanzania is vivid.

We support, promote and advocate for compliance to regional mechanisms that promote good governance, regional cooperation and peace

 

  • The actual number of signatories and ratifications changes from time to time as new signatories and ratifications are made and deposited at the AU. But regular updates  one can visit: http://aga-platform.org/about
Governance, Corruption and State Capture

There is still corruption and corruptive behaviour in public service structures and as a consequence corruption is still recognised as one of the major governances and development obstacle to poverty eradication. Corruption has affected both the quality of social service delivery and business development. According to the World Bank doing business index report of 2012 Tanzania was ranked as 127th position out of 183 Countries. Corruption is ranked as a major impediment to doing business. The level of unpredictable political and economic policy regimes in the region have increased the level of risk to doing business and trade in the country and the region. Regional Political instability and uncertainties of regime change have created social anxiety, economic stagnation, political distress and conflicts.

In a nutshell key government institution like the electoral management, Judiciary and law enforcement are under ‘capture’ by acts of corruption and bribery which have seen these institutions ranked consistently as the most corrupt in the region for the past years

Fiscal Governance and Taxation : Latent deficits & Citizen participation

 

Tax is a block on which governments rely to finance development. Implicitly there is a social contract that exists between the citizens who pay the taxes and the government as a recipient, which spends on their behalf. Yet in reality there appears to be a gap and a none mutual accountability.

Taxes must be fair and just. There is weak citizen engagement in fiscal governance. Most citizens view fiscal governance and tax matters as complex, unfair and exploitative. They least see the relationship between taxation and development and this factor has led to low tax compliance amongst citizens. Multiple studies and surveys by Afro Barometer Survey and others reveal that citizens are willing to pay slightly more taxes if the quality of social services would be improved. Citizen apathy against taxation and affinity to evasion and avoidance is increased, with a perception that the fiscal policies are exploitative and taxes collected are not well spent.

Domestic resource mobilisation and quest for alternative development financing

Domestic resource mobilization is growing  as the best fiscal governance approach to reduce aid dependency and take full ownership of national development strategies. Overall, whilst traditional aid donors continue to be critical , foreign aid budgets have become increasingly under stress over the medium and long-term.

The search for alternative sources of development finance is  important yet constant reports show that African countries, such as Tanzania,  have been missing domestic revenue collection targets. National debts have  bludgeoned to unsustainable levels as governments seek to fill their tax holes, required to finance essential development. Tax evasion and illicit financial outflows are rampant. Reports by organizations such as the Global Financial Integrity and Tax Justice Network show massive resources lost through illicit outflows and tax dodging by multinational companies through aggressive avoidance measures such as transfer mispricing.  People’s awareness and participation in  fiscal governance is limited. Taxes are generally unfair and unjust for the poor.

The purpose of this project is to increase awareness and citizen participation in tax matters via

  • Simplified Analytical pieces on fiscal policy and Taxation
  • Strategic convenings and trainings or tax clinics
  • Local and  International advocacy for just and equitable tax policies and systems
Extractive Transparency and Accountability

Extractive Transparency and Accountability is the pillar for citizen participation, investment attraction and use of extractive resources. If the people know, risks to tax evasion, corruption and the resource curse are reduced.

The East African region is awash with vast natural resources. Over the past five years, the East African region has registered significant discoveries of Oil in the Albertine Graben in Uganda and Turkana in Kenya. The prospects of Natural gas along the coast line of Somalia are promising. Few years ago Tanzania discovered massive natural gas deposits along its coastline adding already to its large extractive resources base. By these standards, the region has a potential for enjoying a natural resource boom.
However, experiences from Tanzania have shown that weak governance and oversight deficits can thwart benefits from the sector. Reports show that for decades the Country was not able to harness the vast extractive resources for development. The government lost revenue through bad contracts with mining companies and communities did not significantly benefit from the minerals and mining operations in their areas. In DRC minerals have been a source of conflict and the environmental impact is tremendous.

Tanzania is a signatory and  member to global transparency and accountability standards such as the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). Tanzania has enacted  some of these principles into a national law,  the Tanzania Extractive Industries Act (TEITA) 2015. The country has established in law, a Multistakeholder body (comprising of government, civil society and companies), as platform for continuous consultation and mutual accountability. However there are deficits on some frontiers of transparency such as not publishing yet signed extractive contracts. Tanzania’s milestones on transparency partly inspired it East African neighbor  Uganda, to sign up to the initiative. The EITI provides an opportunity for East African Countries such as Tanzania, Uganda and DRC to  expand their transparency frontier  and thus expanding  citizens participation and attraction of largescale investment into their extractive sectors. However, citizens awareness and participation is still limited and governance deficits still exist.

This project  seeks to help  governments improve their transparency standards in policy and practice and citizens to be more aware and to participate in the extractive sector via;

  • Analytical pieces on extractive Transparency and Accountability
  • Local and International Advocacy on extractive governance and economic justice
  • Training and convenings on extractive sector governance

More about this work can be viewed via our latest news, reports and publications sections